2024 · Week 8
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 2mph
Closing spread
WAS -1.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play+0.138
- 40.1%Success rate48.1%
- -0.036EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.142EPA / rush+0.027
- 5.9%Explosive rate8.5%
- -0.22CPOE+4.57
- 33.1%Third-down rate45.9%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
- 1.65Points / drive2.78
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. WAS are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 10/24 | 131 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 18 | 129 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Caleb Williams | 9 | 47 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rome Odunze | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 2 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 21/38 | 326 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 16 | 65 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 7 | 52 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Jayden Daniels | 8 | 52 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 8 | 125 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 7 | 11 | 77 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 3 | 6 | 73 | 1 |
| John Bates | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.01
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.16