2013 · Week 7

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

41·45

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

CHI -1

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.077EPA / play-0.058
  • 45.2%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback-0.053
  • -0.072EPA / rush-0.065
  • 9.9%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +4.85CPOE-3.92
  • 42.7%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.95Points / drive1.37
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 44.4 points. WAS are 10-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6CHI @ WAS25–24CHI
2024 · W8CHI @ WAS15–18WAS
2023 · W5CHI @ WAS40–20CHI
2022 · W6WAS @ CHI12–7WAS
2019 · W3CHI @ WAS31–15CHI
2016 · W16WAS @ CHI41–21WAS
2015 · W14WAS @ CHI24–21WAS
2010 · W7WAS @ CHI17–14WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–WAS
WASQ1 15:00677Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 11:2838Punt0–3
WASQ1 9:3430Punt0–3
CHIQ1 8:30418Field goal3–3
WASQ1 7:0310Turnover3–3
CHIQ1 6:51210Touchdown10–3
WASQ1 6:021390Touchdown10–10
CHIQ2 13:4410Opp touchdown10–17
CHIQ2 13:2736Punt10–17
WASQ2 11:433-9Punt10–17
CHIQ2 10:0935Punt10–17
WASQ2 8:48522Opp touchdown17–17
WASQ2 5:521269Touchdown17–24
CHIQ2 0:2700End of half17–24
CHIQ3 15:001249Missed field goal17–24
WASQ3 9:3339Punt17–24
CHIQ3 8:06380Touchdown24–24
WASQ3 6:34883Touchdown24–31
CHIQ3 3:19974Touchdown31–31
WASQ4 12:44580Touchdown31–38
CHIQ4 10:55534Field goal34–38
WASQ4 8:3943Punt34–38
CHIQ4 6:27665Touchdown41–38
WASQ4 3:571275Touchdown41–45
CHIQ4 0:45311End of half41–45

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown14/2020410
Jay Cutler3/82801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte16915.73
Josh McCown4338.30
Alshon Jeffery2168.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery471050
Brandon Marshall610750
Earl Bennett34240
Matt Forte23180
Martellus Bennett1371
Marquess Wilson1130

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III18/2929821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris19955.00
Robert Griffin III11847.60
Roy Helu11413.73
Aldrick Robinson1-11-11.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Reed991341
Aldrick Robinson22751
Pierre Garcon58580
Leonard Hankerson15260
Roy Helu1250
Santana Moss0200
Logan Paulsen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.80
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.45