2013 · Week 7
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
CHI -1
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.077EPA / play-0.058
- 45.2%Success rate42.2%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.053
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.065
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.0%
- +4.85CPOE-3.92
- 42.7%Third-down rate40.7%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.95Points / drive1.37
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. WAS are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 14/20 | 204 | 1 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3/8 | 28 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 16 | 91 | 5.7 | 3 |
| Josh McCown | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 4 | 7 | 105 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 6 | 10 | 75 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| Marquess Wilson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 18/29 | 298 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 19 | 95 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 11 | 84 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 3 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Reed | 9 | 9 | 134 | 1 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 2 | 2 | 75 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 1 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.80
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.45