Closing spread
BAL -10.5
Total
33.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.090EPA / play-0.088
- 39.0%Success rate39.6%
- -0.080EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.166
- 6.9%Explosive rate8.5%
- 37.7%Third-down rate36.2%
- 46.6%Red-zone TD rate45.6%
- 0.98Points / drive1.28
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.0%
- -0.112EPA / play allowed-0.148
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 16/39 | 153 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 24 | 127 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 5 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 3 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Danny Farmer | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Kirk McMullen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 16/30 | 181 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 22 | 91 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Moe Williams | 6 | 49 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Taylor | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 3 | 10 | 31 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
41.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.90