2001 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jon Kitna

0·16

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Elvis Grbac

PSINet Stadium · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

BAL -10.5

Total

33.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapRavens
  • -0.090EPA / play-0.088
  • 39.0%Success rate39.6%
  • -0.080EPA / dropback-0.029
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.166
  • 6.9%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 37.7%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 46.6%Red-zone TD rate45.6%
  • 0.98Points / drive1.28
  • 3.1%Turnover rate3.0%
  • -0.112EPA / play allowed-0.148

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BAL are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BAL
CINQ1 15:00515Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:0936Punt0–0
CINQ1 10:5436Punt0–0
BALQ1 10:03738Field goal0–3
CINQ1 6:51639Punt0–3
BALQ1 3:101365Touchdown0–10
CINQ2 13:35849Turnover0–10
BALQ2 9:391163Turnover0–10
CINQ2 4:15953Turnover0–10
BALQ2 1:01641Field goal0–13
BALQ3 15:00624Punt0–13
CINQ3 12:2039Punt0–13
BALQ3 10:43411Punt0–13
CINQ3 9:17612Punt0–13
BALQ3 6:3947Punt0–13
CINQ3 4:57526Punt0–13
BALQ3 2:55424Punt0–13
CINQ3 0:4730Punt0–13
BALQ4 14:4132Punt0–13
CINQ4 13:01822Punt0–13
BALQ4 8:5430Punt0–13
CINQ4 7:57853Turnover0–13
BALQ4 5:31420Missed field goal0–13
CINQ4 3:0058Turnover0–13
BALQ4 2:2936Field goal0–16
CINQ4 2:004-11Turnover on downs0–16
BALQ4 1:112-2End of half0–16

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna16/3915303

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Dillon241275.30
Brandon Bennett5224.40
Jon Kitna111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Houshmandzadeh57630
Chad Johnson37280
Darnay Scott13200
Danny Farmer23160
Corey Dillon25120
Peter Warrick1370
Ron Dugans1440
Kirk McMullen0200

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Elvis Grbac16/3018100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terry Allen22914.11
Moe Williams6498.20
Travis Taylor199.00
Obafemi Ayanbadejo177.00
Jermaine Lewis144.00
Elvis Grbac2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Taylor45660
Shannon Sharpe33320
Qadry Ismail310310
Brandon Stokley12230
Todd Heap12180
Moe Williams2450
Terry Allen1130
Obafemi Ayanbadejo1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

41.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.90