Closing spread
IND -1
Total
47
Model margin
+2.0est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play+0.005
- 41.1%Success rate45.6%
- +0.011EPA / dropback+0.055
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.069
- 10.9%Explosive rate10.6%
- 37.4%Third-down rate41.4%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
- 1.16Points / drive1.62
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.047EPA / play allowed+0.059
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. IND are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 28/47 | 285 | 2 | 2 |
| LaMont Jordan | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 23 | 122 | 5.3 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Chrebet | 8 | 15 | 118 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 4 | 10 | 52 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 6 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 1 | 1 | 25 | 1 |
| Anthony Becht | 4 | 4 | 22 | 1 |
| Kevin Swayne | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/35 | 228 | 1 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 1/1 | 39 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 17 | 126 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 12 | 15 | 127 | 1 |
| Marcus Pollard | 3 | 4 | 50 | 1 |
| Ken Dilger | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Trevor Insley | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Kevin McDougal | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.03