2001 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Vinny Testaverde

29·28

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

RCA Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

IND -1

Total

47

Model margin

+2.0est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapColts
  • -0.031EPA / play+0.005
  • 41.1%Success rate45.6%
  • +0.011EPA / dropback+0.055
  • -0.079EPA / rush-0.069
  • 10.9%Explosive rate10.6%
  • 37.4%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 48.1%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
  • 1.16Points / drive1.62
  • 2.0%Turnover rate3.4%
  • -0.047EPA / play allowed+0.059

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. IND are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11IND @ NYJ28–27IND
2021 · W9NYJ @ IND30–45IND
2020 · W3NYJ @ IND7–36IND
2018 · W6IND @ NYJ34–42NYJ
2016 · W13IND @ NYJ41–10IND
2015 · W2NYJ @ IND20–7NYJ
2012 · W6IND @ NYJ9–35NYJ
2010 · playoffsNYJ @ IND17–16NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–IND
INDQ1 15:00740Missed field goal0–0
NYJQ1 10:57735Field goal3–0
INDQ1 8:44741Punt3–0
NYJQ1 4:561087Touchdown10–0
INDQ2 14:5237Punt10–0
NYJQ2 13:1135Punt10–0
INDQ2 11:53459Touchdown10–7
NYJQ2 10:27738Turnover10–7
INDQ2 7:3539Punt10–7
NYJQ2 6:081090Field goal13–7
INDQ2 1:13848Field goal13–10
NYJQ3 15:001044Field goal16–10
INDQ3 9:53460Touchdown16–17
NYJQ3 7:363-1Turnover16–17
INDQ3 6:2810Turnover16–17
NYJQ3 6:163-1Field goal19–17
INDQ3 4:4225Turnover19–17
NYJQ3 3:48932Field goal22–17
INDQ4 14:09770Touchdown22–25
NYJQ4 9:59741Missed field goal22–25
INDQ4 6:00534Field goal22–28
NYJQ4 2:481082Touchdown29–28
INDQ4 0:58520Turnover on downs29–28
NYJQ4 0:151-1End of half29–28

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde28/4728522
LaMont Jordan0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin231225.30
LaMont Jordan2136.50
Vinny Testaverde3113.70
Laveranues Coles11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wayne Chrebet8151180
Laveranues Coles410520
Curtis Martin67470
LaMont Jordan11251
Anthony Becht44221
Kevin Swayne0200
Santana Moss0200

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning25/3522810
Ken Dilger1/13910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dominic Rhodes171267.41
Peyton Manning177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison12151271
Marcus Pollard34501
Ken Dilger46380
Dominic Rhodes34260
Trevor Insley23110
Kevin McDougal11100
Reggie Wayne1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.54
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.03