Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
40
Model margin
+3.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 16 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 6:32 | 5 | 57 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| KC | Q1 3:41 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q1 3:11 | 5 | 29 | Punt | 7–7 |
| KC | Q1 1:07 | 10 | 44 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 11:12 | 9 | 31 | Punt | 7–7 |
| KC | Q2 6:28 | 12 | 65 | Missed field goal | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 0:52 | 2 | 5 | End of half | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–7 |
| KC | Q3 13:11 | 5 | 51 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q3 10:15 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–10 |
| KC | Q3 8:35 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q3 6:24 | 10 | 71 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| KC | Q3 1:02 | 5 | 22 | Field goal | 14–13 |
| LAC | Q4 13:25 | 10 | 68 | Missed field goal | 14–13 |
| KC | Q4 9:51 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–13 |
| LAC | Q4 9:42 | 9 | 65 | Field goal | 17–13 |
| KC | Q4 5:01 | 10 | 59 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| LAC | Q4 0:48 | 3 | 3 | End of half | 17–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 19/28 | 203 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 23 | 80 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Snoop Minnis | 6 | 7 | 80 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 3 | 3 | 58 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Jason Dunn | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Priest Holmes | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.62
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.