Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
34
Model margin
+2.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play-0.048
- 38.9%Success rate40.3%
- +0.031EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.113
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.8%
- 36.1%Third-down rate35.2%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.20Points / drive1.21
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.002EPA / play allowed-0.053
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. NYG are 5-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 15/26 | 185 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 28 | 96 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koren Robinson | 3 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 3 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| Darrell Jackson | 4 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Alex Bannister | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 30/47 | 338 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 12 | 47 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 8 | 10 | 124 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 7 | 10 | 105 | 1 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 4 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 6 | 9 | 24 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 4 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.62