2001 · Week 15

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

24·27

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NYG -3

Total

34

Model margin

+2.6est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapGiants
  • -0.018EPA / play-0.048
  • 38.9%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.031EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.080EPA / rush-0.113
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.8%
  • 36.1%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.21
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.4%
  • +0.002EPA / play allowed-0.053

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. NYG are 5-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5NYG @ SEA29–20NYG
2023 · W4SEA @ NYG24–3SEA
2022 · W8NYG @ SEA13–27SEA
2020 · W13NYG @ SEA17–12NYG
2017 · W7SEA @ NYG24–7SEA
2014 · W10NYG @ SEA17–38SEA
2013 · W15SEA @ NYG23–0SEA
2011 · W5SEA @ NYG36–25SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–NYG
SEAQ1 15:00413Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:45423Punt0–0
SEAQ1 10:461176Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 5:43671Touchdown7–7
SEAQ1 2:53517Punt7–7
NYGQ1 0:1234Punt7–7
SEAQ2 13:39451Field goal10–7
NYGQ2 11:31745Punt10–7
SEAQ2 8:065-2Opp touchdown10–14
NYGQ2 5:5200Opp touchdown10–14
SEAQ2 5:52516Punt16–14
NYGQ2 3:331-6Opp touchdown17–14
SEAQ2 3:2400Opp touchdown17–14
NYGQ2 3:24964Field goal17–17
SEAQ2 0:152-7End of half17–17
NYGQ3 15:0000Touchdown17–17
SEAQ3 14:46430Touchdown24–17
NYGQ3 12:53731Punt24–17
SEAQ3 9:00418Punt24–17
NYGQ3 6:40532Punt24–17
SEAQ3 4:0532Punt24–17
NYGQ3 2:401149Field goal24–20
SEAQ4 12:4146Punt24–20
NYGQ4 10:3833Punt24–20
SEAQ4 9:41536Punt24–20
NYGQ4 7:2039Punt24–20
SEAQ4 5:1133Punt24–20
NYGQ4 2:521096Touchdown24–27
SEAQ4 0:2010Turnover24–27
NYGQ4 0:061-1End of half24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck15/2618511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander28963.41
Koren Robinson122.00
Matt Hasselbeck100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Koren Robinson35580
Shaun Alexander35361
Darrell Jackson48250
Alex Bannister11160
Christian Fauria22120
Itula Mili1130
Bobby Engram0200

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins30/4733810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber12473.90
Ron Dayne7426.01
Kerry Collins2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amani Toomer8101240
Ike Hilliard7101051
Joe Jurevicius49520
Tiki Barber69240
Greg Comella46170
Dan Campbell11160
Ron Dixon0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.1%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.62