Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.033EPA / play+0.013
- 45.0%Success rate44.8%
- +0.058EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.004EPA / rush-0.071
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.2%
- +1.68CPOE+5.46
- 37.7%Third-down rate37.4%
- 71.3%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
- 2.02Points / drive2.05
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 8-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 17/31 | 176 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 20 | 53 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 5 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 3 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Myarick | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| David Sills | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Lawrence Cager | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 23/34 | 212 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 18 | 51 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 8 | 63 | 1 |
| DK Metcalf | 6 | 10 | 55 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.15