2022 · Week 8

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

13·27

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.033EPA / play+0.013
  • 45.0%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.058EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.004EPA / rush-0.071
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +1.68CPOE+5.46
  • 37.7%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 71.3%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
  • 2.02Points / drive2.05
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 8-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5NYG @ SEA29–20NYG
2023 · W4SEA @ NYG24–3SEA
2020 · W13NYG @ SEA17–12NYG
2017 · W7SEA @ NYG24–7SEA
2014 · W10NYG @ SEA17–38SEA
2013 · W15SEA @ NYG23–0SEA
2011 · W5SEA @ NYG36–25SEA
2010 · W9NYG @ SEA41–7NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00613Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:4139Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:17514Punt0–0
NYGQ1 8:3733Punt0–0
SEAQ1 6:05418Punt0–0
NYGQ1 4:0033Punt0–0
SEAQ1 3:021654Touchdown0–7
NYGQ2 12:07829Punt0–7
SEAQ2 6:3711Turnover0–7
NYGQ2 6:3022Touchdown7–7
SEAQ2 5:5152Punt7–7
SEAQ2 2:2347Field goal7–10
NYGQ2 1:3830Punt7–10
SEAQ2 0:1000End of half7–10
NYGQ3 15:001479Field goal10–10
SEAQ3 6:04642Field goal10–13
NYGQ3 2:421145Field goal13–13
SEAQ4 11:17575Touchdown13–20
NYGQ4 9:1836Punt13–20
SEAQ4 7:3334Punt13–20
SEAQ4 6:04232Touchdown13–27
NYGQ4 5:22946Turnover on downs13–27
SEAQ4 2:32616Punt13–27
NYGQ4 1:0763End of half13–27

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones17/3117600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley20532.61
Daniel Jones6203.30
Matt Breida252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton56660
Tanner Hudson35580
Wan'Dale Robinson23150
Matt Breida12100
Chris Myarick11100
Saquon Barkley3590
David Sills1250
Marcus Johnson1630
Lawrence Cager0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith23/3421220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III18512.81
Geno Smith5265.20
Travis Homer2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett58631
DK Metcalf610551
Marquise Goodwin45330
Travis Homer11210
Noah Fant22190
Will Dissly22120
Colby Parkinson1150
Dee Eskridge1230
Kenneth Walker III1210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.8%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.15