Closing spread
SEA -4
Total
39
Model margin
-0.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.106
- 41.3%Success rate41.1%
- +0.060EPA / dropback-0.099
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.119
- 9.4%Explosive rate6.2%
- +4.52CPOE-3.91
- 37.4%Third-down rate32.5%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 1.68Points / drive1.19
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. NYG are 5-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 27/39 | 334 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Rawls | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Austin Davis | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 9 | 12 | 92 | 1 |
| Paul Richardson | 2 | 2 | 61 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 6 | 51 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Amara Darboh | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 19/39 | 134 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orleans Darkwa | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tavarres King | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 6 | 12 | 60 | 1 |
| Travis Rudolph | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Roger Lewis | 1 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Tavarres King | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.33
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.15