2014 · Week 10

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

17·38

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 50°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

SEA -9

Total

44.5

Model margin

+5.9est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.014EPA / play+0.091
  • 41.2%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.072EPA / dropback+0.141
  • -0.147EPA / rush+0.030
  • 7.7%Explosive rate11.7%
  • +0.79CPOE+4.40
  • 43.5%Third-down rate43.4%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
  • 1.78Points / drive2.06
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 8-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5NYG @ SEA29–20NYG
2023 · W4SEA @ NYG24–3SEA
2022 · W8NYG @ SEA13–27SEA
2020 · W13NYG @ SEA17–12NYG
2017 · W7SEA @ NYG24–7SEA
2013 · W15SEA @ NYG23–0SEA
2011 · W5SEA @ NYG36–25SEA
2010 · W9NYG @ SEA41–7NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–SEA
NYGQ1 15:00416Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:42680Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 10:23744Punt0–7
SEAQ1 6:1610Turnover0–7
NYGQ1 6:09524Touchdown7–7
SEAQ1 4:32631Punt7–7
NYGQ1 1:01580Touchdown14–7
SEAQ2 13:38324Turnover14–7
NYGQ2 12:1948Punt14–7
SEAQ2 10:221585Touchdown14–14
NYGQ2 1:571052Field goal17–14
SEAQ3 15:00536Turnover17–14
NYGQ3 12:04925Punt17–14
SEAQ3 8:08780Field goal17–17
NYGQ3 4:13741Turnover17–17
SEAQ3 0:39758Touchdown17–24
NYGQ4 12:473-7Punt17–24
SEAQ4 11:15753Touchdown17–31
NYGQ4 7:47726Turnover on downs17–31
SEAQ4 5:46246Touchdown17–38
NYGQ4 5:19615Turnover17–38
SEAQ4 2:53319End of half17–38

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning29/4428311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Williams13332.51
Odell Beckham Jr.11111.00
Michael Cox263.00
Peyton Hillis144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.791080
Preston Parker77791
Rueben Randle510390
Larry Donnell46260
Daniel Fells11120
Michael Cox2390
Peyton Hillis1250
Andre Williams2550

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson10/1717202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch211406.74
Russell Wilson141077.61
Christine Michael47117.80
Robert Turbin6325.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermaine Kearse34700
Cooper Helfet12320
Doug Baldwin46310
Marshawn Lynch11230
Ricardo Lockette12160
Paul Richardson0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.6%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+5.86