Closing spread
SEA -9
Total
44.5
Model margin
+5.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play+0.091
- 41.2%Success rate44.0%
- +0.072EPA / dropback+0.141
- -0.147EPA / rush+0.030
- 7.7%Explosive rate11.7%
- +0.79CPOE+4.40
- 43.5%Third-down rate43.4%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
- 1.78Points / drive2.06
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 8-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 29/44 | 283 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Williams | 13 | 33 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Michael Cox | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 7 | 9 | 108 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 7 | 7 | 79 | 1 |
| Rueben Randle | 5 | 10 | 39 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Michael Cox | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 10/17 | 172 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 21 | 140 | 6.7 | 4 |
| Russell Wilson | 14 | 107 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Christine Michael | 4 | 71 | 17.8 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 4 | 70 | 0 |
| Cooper Helfet | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 4 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.86