2024 · Week 5

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

29·20

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 61°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SEA -7

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.088EPA / play-0.013
  • 41.1%Success rate44.4%
  • -0.073EPA / dropback+0.044
  • -0.116EPA / rush-0.126
  • 6.8%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -1.45CPOE+4.61
  • 36.0%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 47.5%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.82
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 8-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4SEA @ NYG24–3SEA
2022 · W8NYG @ SEA13–27SEA
2020 · W13NYG @ SEA17–12NYG
2017 · W7SEA @ NYG24–7SEA
2014 · W10NYG @ SEA17–38SEA
2013 · W15SEA @ NYG23–0SEA
2011 · W5SEA @ NYG36–25SEA
2010 · W9NYG @ SEA41–7NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00525Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:151684Opp touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 2:1438Punt0–7
SEAQ2 15:0032Punt0–7
NYGQ2 13:35881Touchdown7–7
SEAQ2 9:09718Punt7–7
NYGQ2 5:341153Field goal10–7
SEAQ2 0:22245Field goal10–10
NYGQ2 0:0200End of half10–10
NYGQ3 15:0035Punt10–10
SEAQ3 13:23350Turnover10–10
NYGQ3 12:11487Touchdown17–10
SEAQ3 10:41746Field goal17–13
NYGQ3 6:331060Field goal20–13
SEAQ3 0:4646Turnover on downs20–13
NYGQ4 14:09521Field goal23–13
SEAQ4 11:5455Punt23–13
NYGQ4 9:33617Punt23–13
SEAQ4 5:5314100Touchdown23–20
NYGQ4 2:0936Punt23–20
SEAQ4 1:40438Opp touchdown29–20
SEAQ4 0:554-2Turnover on downs29–20
NYGQ4 0:0900End of half29–20

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones23/3425720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.181297.20
Daniel Jones11383.50
Wan'Dale Robinson144.00
Eric Gray441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton8111221
Eric Gray34500
Theo Johnson55480
Wan'Dale Robinson69361
Tyrone Tracy Jr.1210

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith28/4028410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Geno Smith47218.00
Kenneth Walker III5193.80
Zach Charbonnet2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett46750
Kenneth Walker III78570
DK Metcalf47550
Jaxon Smith-Njigba47311
Noah Fant33240
Zach Charbonnet35190
AJ Barner11130
Pharaoh Brown1170
Jake Bobo1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

4.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.6%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.54
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+3.93