Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play-0.013
- 41.1%Success rate44.4%
- -0.073EPA / dropback+0.044
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.126
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- -1.45CPOE+4.61
- 36.0%Third-down rate37.5%
- 47.5%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 1.28Points / drive1.82
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 8-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 23/34 | 257 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 18 | 129 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Eric Gray | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 8 | 11 | 122 | 1 |
| Eric Gray | 3 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Theo Johnson | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 6 | 9 | 36 | 1 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 28/40 | 284 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 4 | 72 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 7 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 4 | 7 | 31 | 1 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.54
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+3.93