2023 · Week 4

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

24·3

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 67°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

SEA -2.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapGiants
  • +0.032EPA / play-0.165
  • 44.6%Success rate38.2%
  • +0.094EPA / dropback-0.143
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.205
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +1.54CPOE+0.19
  • 36.3%Third-down rate30.9%
  • 49.3%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
  • 2.00Points / drive1.09
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. NYG are 5-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5NYG @ SEA29–20NYG
2022 · W8NYG @ SEA13–27SEA
2020 · W13NYG @ SEA17–12NYG
2017 · W7SEA @ NYG24–7SEA
2014 · W10NYG @ SEA17–38SEA
2013 · W15SEA @ NYG23–0SEA
2011 · W5SEA @ NYG36–25SEA
2010 · W9NYG @ SEA41–7NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–NYG
NYGQ1 15:001148Turnover on downs0–0
SEAQ1 8:453-7Punt0–0
NYGQ1 7:14415Punt0–0
SEAQ1 5:17738Punt0–0
NYGQ1 1:3721Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 0:4527Touchdown7–0
NYGQ2 15:00627Punt7–0
SEAQ2 11:54523Punt7–0
NYGQ2 9:161161Field goal7–3
SEAQ2 3:05775Touchdown14–3
NYGQ2 1:3933Punt14–3
SEAQ2 0:53619End of half14–3
SEAQ3 15:001077Turnover on downs14–3
NYGQ3 9:033-4Punt14–3
SEAQ3 7:2535Missed field goal14–3
NYGQ3 6:311137Opp touchdown21–3
NYGQ3 1:031012Punt21–3
SEAQ4 11:2033Punt21–3
NYGQ4 10:23631Turnover21–3
SEAQ4 8:26534Field goal24–3
NYGQ4 5:26611Turnover on downs24–3
SEAQ4 3:3047Turnover on downs24–3
NYGQ4 1:1126End of half24–3

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith13/2011010
Drew Lock2/66300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III17794.61
Zach Charbonnet5316.20
Drew Lock11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Noah Fant22630
Tyler Lockett46540
DK Metcalf34341
Cody Thompson11100
Zach Charbonnet1390
Jaxon Smith-Njigba3650
Colby Parkinson0100
DeeJay Dallas0100
Jake Bobo0100
Geno Smith11-20

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones27/3420302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daniel Jones10666.60
Matt Breida14302.10
Gary Brightwell492.30
Wan'Dale Robinson177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matt Breida55480
Wan'Dale Robinson56400
Isaiah Hodgins33240
Darius Slayton23230
Darren Waller33210
Parris Campbell35150
Gary Brightwell12100
Jalin Hyatt22100
Sterling Shepard1160
Daniel Bellinger1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.8%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.33
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.35
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+0.26