Closing spread
SEA -2.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.032EPA / play-0.165
- 44.6%Success rate38.2%
- +0.094EPA / dropback-0.143
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.205
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- +1.54CPOE+0.19
- 36.3%Third-down rate30.9%
- 49.3%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 2.00Points / drive1.09
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. NYG are 5-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 13/20 | 110 | 1 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 2/6 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 17 | 79 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Fant | 2 | 2 | 63 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| Cody Thompson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 3 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 27/34 | 203 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 10 | 66 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 14 | 30 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Gary Brightwell | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Breida | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 5 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Gary Brightwell | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.33
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.35
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.26