Closing spread
NYG -10
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play+0.050
- 38.9%Success rate44.0%
- -0.035EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.143
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.4%
- +0.03CPOE+1.53
- 33.6%Third-down rate38.3%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
- 1.31Points / drive1.84
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. NYG are 5-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 15/22 | 166 | 1 | 1 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 11/19 | 149 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 12 | 98 | 8.2 | 1 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 8 | 9 | 136 | 1 |
| Ben Obomanu | 6 | 10 | 51 | 1 |
| Sidney Rice | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 1 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 24/39 | 420 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 17 | 58 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | 8 | 11 | 161 | 1 |
| Jake Ballard | 3 | 4 | 72 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 4 | 7 | 65 | 1 |
| Mario Manningham | 5 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.89