2011 · Week 5

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Tarvaris Jackson

36·25

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 81°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NYG -10

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapGiants
  • -0.069EPA / play+0.050
  • 38.9%Success rate44.0%
  • -0.035EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.118EPA / rush-0.143
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +0.03CPOE+1.53
  • 33.6%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 48.7%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.84
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. NYG are 5-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5NYG @ SEA29–20NYG
2023 · W4SEA @ NYG24–3SEA
2022 · W8NYG @ SEA13–27SEA
2020 · W13NYG @ SEA17–12NYG
2017 · W7SEA @ NYG24–7SEA
2014 · W10NYG @ SEA17–38SEA
2013 · W15SEA @ NYG23–0SEA
2010 · W9NYG @ SEA41–7NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–NYG
SEAQ1 15:00968Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 12:28780Touchdown7–7
SEAQ1 9:08511Punt7–7
NYGQ1 6:593-3Turnover7–7
SEAQ1 5:262-2Turnover7–7
NYGQ1 5:1431Punt7–7
SEAQ1 3:17248Touchdown14–7
NYGQ1 3:00631Punt14–7
SEAQ2 14:081495Turnover14–7
NYGQ2 8:145-5Punt14–7
SEAQ2 5:47311Punt14–7
NYGQ2 3:4210Turnover14–7
SEAQ2 3:3237Punt14–7
NYGQ2 2:1630Punt14–7
SEAQ2 1:4935Turnover14–7
NYGQ2 0:51459Touchdown14–14
SEAQ2 0:1100End of half14–14
NYGQ3 15:0049Punt14–14
SEAQ3 12:493-3Punt14–14
NYGQ3 11:0737Punt14–14
SEAQ3 9:22533Punt16–14
NYGQ3 7:071-5Safety16–14
SEAQ3 7:02515Punt16–14
NYGQ3 4:35525Punt16–14
SEAQ3 2:13833Field goal19–14
NYGQ4 14:28475Touchdown19–22
SEAQ4 12:37425Punt19–22
NYGQ4 11:2538Turnover19–22
SEAQ4 10:3930Field goal22–22
NYGQ4 10:15977Field goal22–25
SEAQ4 4:49780Touchdown29–25
NYGQ4 2:37575Opp touchdown36–25
NYGQ4 1:08430Turnover36–25
SEAQ4 0:1500End of half36–25

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tarvaris Jackson15/2216611
Charlie Whitehurst11/1914910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch12988.21
Tarvaris Jackson4174.30
Leon Washington3103.30
Justin Forsett492.30
Charlie Whitehurst263.00
Sidney Rice100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin891361
Ben Obomanu610511
Sidney Rice45380
Marshawn Lynch46330
Golden Tate23310
Anthony McCoy16200
Leon Washington1160
Justin Forsett0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning24/3942033

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw17583.40
Eli Manning351.70
D.J. Ware430.80
Victor Cruz133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Victor Cruz8111611
Jake Ballard34721
Hakeem Nicks47651
Mario Manningham59560
Ahmad Bradshaw25270
D.J. Ware11220
Bear Pascoe11170
Travis Beckum0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +107.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.1%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.89