2013 · Week 15

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

23·0

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 36°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

SEA -9.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

-0.9est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapGiants
  • +0.059EPA / play-0.142
  • 44.6%Success rate40.2%
  • +0.190EPA / dropback-0.087
  • -0.101EPA / rush-0.235
  • 10.9%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +5.19CPOE-3.07
  • 38.4%Third-down rate32.2%
  • 61.9%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
  • 2.17Points / drive1.06
  • 1.7%Turnover rate4.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. NYG are 5-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5NYG @ SEA29–20NYG
2023 · W4SEA @ NYG24–3SEA
2022 · W8NYG @ SEA13–27SEA
2020 · W13NYG @ SEA17–12NYG
2017 · W7SEA @ NYG24–7SEA
2014 · W10NYG @ SEA17–38SEA
2011 · W5SEA @ NYG36–25SEA
2010 · W9NYG @ SEA41–7NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–NYG
SEAQ1 15:00535Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:493-8Punt0–0
SEAQ1 10:33416Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 8:33529Punt3–0
SEAQ1 5:53645Punt3–0
NYGQ1 2:24419Turnover3–0
SEAQ1 0:0633Punt3–0
NYGQ2 13:2034Punt3–0
SEAQ2 11:553-2Punt3–0
NYGQ2 10:1321Turnover3–0
SEAQ2 9:03762Touchdown10–0
NYGQ2 5:3049Punt10–0
SEAQ2 2:481050Field goal13–0
NYGQ2 0:0310Turnover13–0
NYGQ3 15:003-12Punt13–0
SEAQ3 12:50844Field goal16–0
NYGQ3 8:47513Punt16–0
SEAQ3 6:04518Punt16–0
NYGQ3 3:51416Punt16–0
SEAQ3 1:47312Turnover16–0
NYGQ3 0:10210Turnover16–0
SEAQ4 14:53713Touchdown23–0
NYGQ4 12:13629Punt23–0
SEAQ4 10:0239Punt23–0
NYGQ4 7:35847Turnover23–0
SEAQ4 4:17522Punt23–0
NYGQ4 1:45524End of half23–0

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson18/2720611
Tarvaris Jackson2/21600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson8506.30
Marshawn Lynch16472.91
Robert Turbin9343.80
Doug Baldwin133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marshawn Lynch66730
Doug Baldwin67711
Golden Tate26250
Luke Willson22230
Jermaine Kearse23210
Zach Miller1380
Robert Turbin1110
Ricardo Lockette0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning18/3115605
Curtis Painter4/43000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Brown11171.50
Peyton Hillis382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerrel Jernigan78670
Brandon Myers33370
Victor Cruz27250
Peyton Hillis22240
Bear Pascoe22120
Andre Brown4590
Louis Murphy1170
Hakeem Nicks1550
Rueben Randle0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.7%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.37
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.88