Closing spread
SEA -9.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play-0.142
- 44.6%Success rate40.2%
- +0.190EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.101EPA / rush-0.235
- 10.9%Explosive rate8.8%
- +5.19CPOE-3.07
- 38.4%Third-down rate32.2%
- 61.9%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 2.17Points / drive1.06
- 1.7%Turnover rate4.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. NYG are 5-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 18/27 | 206 | 1 | 1 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 2/2 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 8 | 50 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 16 | 47 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 6 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 6 | 7 | 71 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 18/31 | 156 | 0 | 5 |
| Curtis Painter | 4/4 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Brown | 11 | 17 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerrel Jernigan | 7 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 2 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Andre Brown | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.7%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.37
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.88