Closing spread
SEA -11
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play+0.105
- 42.1%Success rate48.8%
- -0.051EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.013
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.6%
- -2.04CPOE+6.78
- 35.1%Third-down rate39.6%
- 51.7%Red-zone TD rate72.6%
- 1.57Points / drive2.52
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 8-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 13/22 | 105 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Gallman | 16 | 135 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Dion Lewis | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 4 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Kaden Smith | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| C.J. Board | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 27/43 | 263 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 13 | 65 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 7 | 45 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 6 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 3 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Will Dissly | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
40.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.42
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.22