2020 · Week 13

Final

Giants

New York

QB Colt McCoy

17·12

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 51°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SEA -11

Total

48.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

1.4%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.057EPA / play+0.105
  • 42.1%Success rate48.8%
  • -0.051EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.013
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -2.04CPOE+6.78
  • 35.1%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 51.7%Red-zone TD rate72.6%
  • 1.57Points / drive2.52
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 8-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5NYG @ SEA29–20NYG
2023 · W4SEA @ NYG24–3SEA
2022 · W8NYG @ SEA13–27SEA
2017 · W7SEA @ NYG24–7SEA
2014 · W10NYG @ SEA17–38SEA
2013 · W15SEA @ NYG23–0SEA
2011 · W5SEA @ NYG36–25SEA
2010 · W9NYG @ SEA41–7NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00857Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 11:5032Punt0–3
SEAQ1 10:533-5Punt0–3
NYGQ1 9:111168Turnover0–3
SEAQ1 2:24727Punt0–3
NYGQ2 12:41616Punt0–3
SEAQ2 8:44625Turnover0–3
NYGQ2 6:0233Punt0–3
SEAQ2 4:18950Punt0–3
NYGQ2 0:4836Safety0–5
SEAQ2 0:28219End of half0–5
NYGQ3 15:00519Punt0–5
SEAQ3 12:15419Punt0–5
NYGQ3 9:47480Touchdown8–5
SEAQ3 7:40523Turnover on downs8–5
NYGQ3 5:06548Touchdown14–5
SEAQ3 2:2979Punt14–5
NYGQ4 13:3337Punt14–5
SEAQ4 11:2710Turnover14–5
NYGQ4 11:2139Field goal17–5
SEAQ4 9:501277Touchdown17–12
NYGQ4 6:09833Punt17–12
SEAQ4 1:48826Turnover on downs17–12
NYGQ4 0:3700End of half17–12

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy13/2210511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wayne Gallman161358.40
Alfred Morris8394.91
Dion Lewis362.00
Colt McCoy221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram48320
Golden Tate44300
Sterling Shepard16220
Darius Slayton11140
Alfred Morris1161
Kaden Smith1130
C.J. Board11-20

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson27/4326311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson13655.00
Russell Wilson7456.40
Carlos Hyde210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf58800
Tyler Lockett69630
Chris Carson36451
Will Dissly45280
Jacob Hollister34200
DeeJay Dallas23110
Carlos Hyde33100
David Moore1260
Freddie Swain0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +117.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.0%

Expected total

40.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.42
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.22