Closing spread
STL -12.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CAR lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. CAR are 10-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 13:26 | 2 | 28 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 12:49 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 11:42 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 9:36 | 13 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q1 2:08 | 5 | 34 | Missed field goal | 7–7 |
| LA | Q2 14:55 | 9 | 35 | Missed field goal | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q2 9:31 | 14 | 52 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| LA | Q2 4:20 | 4 | 74 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| CAR | Q2 2:06 | 7 | 50 | Opp touchdown | 21–10 |
| LA | Q2 0:41 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 21–10 |
| CAR | Q2 0:41 | 3 | 56 | Field goal | 21–13 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 21–13 |
| LA | Q3 13:21 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 21–13 |
| CAR | Q3 13:13 | 4 | 11 | Field goal | 21–16 |
| LA | Q3 12:28 | 7 | 54 | Field goal | 24–16 |
| CAR | Q3 7:24 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 24–16 |
| LA | Q3 4:50 | 3 | 85 | Touchdown | 31–16 |
| CAR | Q3 3:21 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 31–22 |
| CAR | Q3 0:11 | 1 | 4 | Touchdown | 31–23 |
| LA | Q3 0:05 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 31–23 |
| CAR | Q4 11:30 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 31–23 |
| LA | Q4 11:04 | 4 | 44 | Touchdown | 38–23 |
| CAR | Q4 8:44 | 10 | 67 | Touchdown | 38–29 |
| LA | Q4 4:56 | 6 | 14 | Missed field goal | 38–29 |
| CAR | Q4 1:55 | 7 | 26 | Field goal | 38–32 |
| LA | Q4 0:27 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 38–32 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weinke | 24/51 | 312 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Huntley | 19 | 74 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Chris Weinke | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Hayes | 4 | 12 | 77 | 0 |
| Patrick Jeffers | 7 | 11 | 70 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 2 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| Wesley Walls | 4 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 |
| Casey Crawford | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.64
- Expected margin+0.16
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.