Closing spread
CAR -1
Total
39.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.028EPA / play-0.195
- 39.3%Success rate35.9%
- +0.073EPA / dropback-0.169
- -0.182EPA / rush-0.247
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.0%
- 28.9%Third-down rate30.3%
- 48.3%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 1.12Points / drive0.78
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.014EPA / play allowed+0.016
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 14–7 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. CAR are 13-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 12/23 | 173 | 2 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 12 | 89 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 16 | 69 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Dennis McKinley | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 7 | 14 | 127 | 2 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Tywan Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Arnold Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weinke | 36/63 | 223 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Huntley | 12 | 62 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Chris Weinke | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Byrd | 7 | 16 | 60 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 6 | 8 | 39 | 1 |
| Kris Mangum | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Patrick Jeffers | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Luther Broughton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.5%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.14
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.57