2001 · Week 16

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

30·7

Panthers

Carolina

QB Chris Weinke

Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CAR -1

Total

39.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.028EPA / play-0.195
  • 39.3%Success rate35.9%
  • +0.073EPA / dropback-0.169
  • -0.182EPA / rush-0.247
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.0%
  • 28.9%Third-down rate30.3%
  • 48.3%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
  • 1.12Points / drive0.78
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.1%
  • +0.014EPA / play allowed+0.016

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 14–7 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. CAR are 13-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2CAR @ ARI22–27ARI
2024 · W16ARI @ CAR30–36CAR
2022 · W4ARI @ CAR26–16ARI
2021 · W10CAR @ ARI34–10CAR
2020 · W4ARI @ CAR21–31CAR
2019 · W3CAR @ ARI38–20CAR
2016 · W8ARI @ CAR20–30CAR
2015 · playoffsARI @ CAR15–49CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–CAR
CARQ1 15:0023Opp touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 14:0400Opp touchdown7–0
CARQ1 14:041349Missed field goal7–0
ARIQ1 8:26614Punt7–0
CARQ1 6:0936Missed field goal7–0
ARIQ1 5:1530Punt7–0
CARQ1 4:193-3Punt7–0
ARIQ1 3:08626Field goal10–0
CARQ2 14:56416Punt10–0
ARIQ2 13:27380Touchdown17–0
CARQ2 12:3620Turnover17–0
ARIQ2 11:28422Touchdown24–0
CARQ2 9:461464Touchdown24–7
ARIQ2 2:38845Field goal27–7
ARIQ3 15:00860Field goal30–7
CARQ3 11:271559Turnover on downs30–7
ARIQ3 4:54439Punt30–7
CARQ3 3:20414Punt30–7
ARIQ3 1:5334Punt30–7
CARQ4 14:471775Turnover on downs30–7
ARIQ4 9:19421Punt30–7
CARQ4 7:091035Turnover on downs30–7
ARIQ4 4:49626End of half30–7

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer12/2317320
Frank Sanders0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman12897.40
Thomas Jones16694.30
Dennis McKinley111.00
Jake Plummer4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Boston7141272
Michael Pittman24280
Tywan Mitchell22150
Thomas Jones1130
Frank Sanders0100
Arnold Jackson0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Weinke36/6322311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Richard Huntley12625.20
Chris Weinke5193.80
Nick Goings133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaac Byrd716600
Donald Hayes68391
Kris Mangum47270
Patrick Jeffers35130
Nick Goings1140
Richard Huntley3330
Luther Broughton0100
Steve Smith0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.5%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.14
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.57