Closing spread
CAR -1
Total
44
Model margin
-1.7est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play-0.036
- 40.7%Success rate40.8%
- -0.079EPA / dropback-0.062
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.005
- 6.3%Explosive rate9.4%
- -1.70CPOE-4.71
- 35.4%Third-down rate31.6%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.60Points / drive1.70
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 14–7 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. CAR are 13-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 23/32 | 207 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 12 | 26 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Darrel Williams | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 6 | 11 | 88 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 6 | 6 | 47 | 1 |
| Trey McBride | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| James Conner | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 22/36 | 197 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 9 | 9 | 81 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 6 | 11 | 50 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Shi Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.5%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-4.70
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.68