2022 · Week 4

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

26·16

Panthers

Carolina

QB Baker Mayfield

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

CAR -1

Total

44

Model margin

-1.7est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.081EPA / play-0.036
  • 40.7%Success rate40.8%
  • -0.079EPA / dropback-0.062
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.005
  • 6.3%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -1.70CPOE-4.71
  • 35.4%Third-down rate31.6%
  • 59.7%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 1.60Points / drive1.70
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 14–7 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. CAR are 13-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2CAR @ ARI22–27ARI
2024 · W16ARI @ CAR30–36CAR
2021 · W10CAR @ ARI34–10CAR
2020 · W4ARI @ CAR21–31CAR
2019 · W3CAR @ ARI38–20CAR
2016 · W8ARI @ CAR20–30CAR
2015 · playoffsARI @ CAR15–49CAR
2014 · playoffsARI @ CAR16–27CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–CAR
ARIQ1 15:00416Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:5949Turnover on downs0–0
ARIQ1 10:53625Turnover on downs0–0
CARQ1 7:2838Punt0–0
ARIQ1 6:2834Punt0–0
CARQ1 4:55835Punt0–0
ARIQ2 14:51515Opp touchdown0–7
ARIQ2 12:13724Turnover on downs0–7
CARQ2 8:57410Turnover0–7
ARIQ2 6:53745Field goal3–7
CARQ2 3:34734Turnover3–7
ARIQ2 1:0538Punt3–7
CARQ2 0:21429Field goal3–10
CARQ3 15:003-4Punt3–10
ARIQ3 12:501162Touchdown10–10
CARQ3 7:42516Punt10–10
ARIQ3 5:481683Field goal13–10
CARQ4 11:2210Turnover13–10
ARIQ4 11:0825Touchdown20–10
CARQ4 10:2649Turnover on downs20–10
ARIQ4 9:13331Touchdown26–10
CARQ4 7:37974Touchdown26–16
ARIQ4 4:47523End of half26–16

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray23/3220721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner15553.70
Eno Benjamin5367.20
Kyler Murray12262.21
Darrel Williams4194.80
Rondale Moore1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown611881
Zach Ertz66471
Trey McBride33240
James Conner33220
Rondale Moore35110
Eno Benjamin1190
Greg Dortch1160
Darrel Williams0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield22/3619712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey8273.40
DJ Moore11111.00
D'Onta Foreman122.00
Baker Mayfield200.00
Laviska Shenault Jr.100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian McCaffrey99811
DJ Moore611500
Tommy Tremble36340
Robbie Chosen35260
Ian Thomas1360
Shi Smith0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.5%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.70
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.68