Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
52.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play+0.019
- 46.0%Success rate45.8%
- +0.087EPA / dropback+0.075
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.082
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.9%
- +2.07CPOE+2.88
- 40.2%Third-down rate39.5%
- 71.9%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 2.19Points / drive2.21
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 14–7 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. CAR are 13-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 24/31 | 133 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 6 | 78 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 13 | 35 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 5 | 6 | 24 | 1 |
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Andy Isabella | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 26/37 | 276 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 16 | 84 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Reggie Bonnafon | 10 | 53 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 8 | 11 | 99 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 4 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 5 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Reggie Bonnafon | 2 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Seth Roberts | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.46