Closing spread
ARI -7
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play-0.014
- 43.7%Success rate43.0%
- +0.007EPA / dropback+0.042
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.142
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.8%
- +1.44CPOE+1.10
- 35.7%Third-down rate41.6%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 1.80Points / drive1.88
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 14–7 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. ARI are 8-13 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 35/55 | 328 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 6 | 10 | 100 | 0 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 7 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 7 | 9 | 48 | 2 |
| Brycen Tremayne | 3 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 5 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Tommy Tremble | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Mitchell Evans | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Trevor Etienne | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 1 | 8 | -2 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 17/25 | 220 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Kyler Murray | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Trey Benson | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 6 | 7 | 78 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 2 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Trey Benson | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| James Conner | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.78
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.69