2025 · Week 2

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

22·27

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -7

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapCardinals
  • -0.025EPA / play-0.014
  • 43.7%Success rate43.0%
  • +0.007EPA / dropback+0.042
  • -0.072EPA / rush-0.142
  • 8.0%Explosive rate6.8%
  • +1.44CPOE+1.10
  • 35.7%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
  • 1.80Points / drive1.88
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 14–7 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. ARI are 8-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W16ARI @ CAR30–36CAR
2022 · W4ARI @ CAR26–16ARI
2021 · W10CAR @ ARI34–10CAR
2020 · W4ARI @ CAR21–31CAR
2019 · W3CAR @ ARI38–20CAR
2016 · W8ARI @ CAR20–30CAR
2015 · playoffsARI @ CAR15–49CAR
2014 · playoffsARI @ CAR16–27CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ARI
CARQ1 15:003-8Opp touchdown0–7
CARQ1 13:27822Turnover0–7
ARIQ1 8:5389Field goal0–10
CARQ1 5:19855Field goal3–10
ARIQ1 0:5065Punt3–10
CARQ2 12:01741Punt3–10
ARIQ2 7:191186Field goal3–13
CARQ2 1:5533Punt3–13
ARIQ2 0:51645Touchdown3–20
CARQ2 0:0400End of half3–20
ARIQ3 15:001076Touchdown3–27
CARQ3 9:231576Touchdown9–27
ARIQ3 2:061070Turnover9–27
CARQ4 10:321493Touchdown15–27
ARIQ4 5:0534Punt15–27
CARQ4 4:311276Touchdown22–27
ARIQ4 1:5800Turnover on downs22–27
CARQ4 1:5512-5Turnover on downs22–27
ARIQ4 0:2600End of half22–27

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young35/5532831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard10383.80
Rico Dowdle691.50
Bryce Young221.00
Xavier Legette100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tetairoa McMillan6101000
Ja'Tavion Sanders79540
Hunter Renfrow79482
Brycen Tremayne35480
Chuba Hubbard56391
Tommy Tremble33200
Rico Dowdle11100
Mitchell Evans1190
Trevor Etienne1120
Xavier Legette18-20

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray17/2522011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner11343.11
Kyler Murray7324.60
Trey Benson3144.70
Jacoby Brissett122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey McBride67780
Elijah Higgins23450
Trey Benson46300
Marvin Harrison Jr.25270
James Conner11180
Greg Dortch11110
Michael Wilson12111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

4.64%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.78
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.69