2024 · Week 16

Final / OT

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

30·36

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

ARI -5.5

Total

47

Model margin

-1.6est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.067EPA / play-0.040
  • 47.3%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.126EPA / dropback-0.041
  • -0.023EPA / rush-0.040
  • 10.0%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +2.11CPOE+0.06
  • 43.0%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.88
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 14–7 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. CAR are 13-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2CAR @ ARI22–27ARI
2022 · W4ARI @ CAR26–16ARI
2021 · W10CAR @ ARI34–10CAR
2020 · W4ARI @ CAR21–31CAR
2019 · W3CAR @ ARI38–20CAR
2016 · W8ARI @ CAR20–30CAR
2015 · playoffsARI @ CAR15–49CAR
2014 · playoffsARI @ CAR16–27CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–CAR
ARIQ1 15:00411Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:531751Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 4:55969Field goal3–7
CARQ2 14:37670Touchdown3–13
ARIQ2 11:35511Turnover3–13
CARQ2 9:19430Touchdown3–20
ARIQ2 7:55455Touchdown10–20
CARQ2 5:5735Punt10–20
ARIQ2 4:201063Touchdown17–20
CARQ2 0:0700End of half17–20
CARQ3 15:001055Field goal17–23
ARIQ3 9:31858Field goal20–23
CARQ3 5:00627Punt20–23
ARIQ3 0:5933Punt20–23
CARQ3 0:03658Touchdown20–30
ARIQ4 12:041075Touchdown27–30
CARQ4 6:56410Punt27–30
ARIQ4 4:524-1Turnover27–30
CARQ4 3:10635Punt27–30
ARIQ4 1:47635Field goal30–30
CAROT33Punt30–30
ARIOT73Punt30–30
CAROT249Touchdown30–36

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray20/3220211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner151177.81
Kyler Murray8637.91
Michael Carter5183.60
Greg Dortch188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Conner44490
Michael Wilson25440
Marvin Harrison Jr.48390
Michael Carter55300
Trey McBride34200
Greg Dortch11190
DeeJay Dallas1111
Elijah Higgins0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young17/2615820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard251526.12
Bryce Young56813.61
Raheem Blackshear3134.30
Deven Thompkins199.00
Mike Boone111.00
David Moore100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen56431
David Moore23391
Tommy Tremble33320
Dan Chisena12230
Chuba Hubbard45130
Jalen Coker2580

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.8%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.29
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.59