Closing spread
ARI -5.5
Total
47
Model margin
-1.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.067EPA / play-0.040
- 47.3%Success rate41.8%
- +0.126EPA / dropback-0.041
- -0.023EPA / rush-0.040
- 10.0%Explosive rate7.5%
- +2.11CPOE+0.06
- 43.0%Third-down rate36.3%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 2.31Points / drive1.88
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 14–7 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. CAR are 13-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 20/32 | 202 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 15 | 117 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Kyler Murray | 8 | 63 | 7.9 | 1 |
| Michael Carter | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 2 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 4 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Elijah Higgins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 17/26 | 158 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 25 | 152 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Bryce Young | 5 | 68 | 13.6 | 1 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 6 | 43 | 1 |
| David Moore | 2 | 3 | 39 | 1 |
| Tommy Tremble | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Dan Chisena | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 4 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Jalen Coker | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.8%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.29
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.59