2021 · Week 10

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Phillip Walker

34·10

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Colt McCoy

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -7

Total

42

Model margin

+2.7est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapCardinals
  • -0.132EPA / play+0.079
  • 41.2%Success rate46.8%
  • -0.158EPA / dropback+0.154
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.037
  • 7.3%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -7.50CPOE+4.19
  • 36.1%Third-down rate45.2%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 1.43Points / drive2.37
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 14–7 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. ARI are 8-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2CAR @ ARI22–27ARI
2024 · W16ARI @ CAR30–36CAR
2022 · W4ARI @ CAR26–16ARI
2020 · W4ARI @ CAR21–31CAR
2019 · W3CAR @ ARI38–20CAR
2016 · W8ARI @ CAR20–30CAR
2015 · playoffsARI @ CAR15–49CAR
2014 · playoffsARI @ CAR16–27CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ARI
ARIQ1 15:003-9Turnover0–0
CARQ1 13:34515Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 11:1243Turnover on downs7–0
CARQ1 9:51441Touchdown14–0
ARIQ1 8:39644Turnover14–0
CARQ1 6:25950Field goal17–0
ARIQ1 1:00510Punt17–0
CARQ2 14:49951Field goal20–0
ARIQ2 9:4049Punt20–0
CARQ2 7:33639Turnover20–0
ARIQ2 4:1535Punt20–0
CARQ2 3:161053Field goal23–0
CARQ3 15:0048Punt23–0
ARIQ3 12:47646Field goal23–3
CARQ3 10:02942Touchdown31–3
ARIQ3 5:345-4Turnover on downs31–3
CARQ3 3:1722Turnover31–3
ARIQ3 2:3149Turnover on downs31–3
CARQ3 0:453-2Punt31–3
ARIQ4 13:521156Touchdown31–10
CARQ4 9:19936Field goal34–10
ARIQ4 3:263-9Punt34–10
CARQ4 2:0936Punt34–10
ARIQ4 0:2219End of half34–10

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
PJ Walker22/2916701
Cam Newton3/4810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey13957.30
Chuba Hubbard9273.01
Ameer Abdullah9242.70
Cam Newton3144.71
PJ Walker362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian McCaffrey1010660
Robbie Chosen46371
Ameer Abdullah44270
DJ Moore47240
Brandon Zylstra22180
Tommy Tremble1130
Terrace Marshall Jr.0200

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy11/2010701
Chris Streveler6/93600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner10393.91
Eno Benjamin6223.70
Chris Streveler242.00
Rondale Moore111.00
Colt McCoy1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk78580
Zach Ertz46460
James Conner34250
Rondale Moore24100
A.J. Green1540
Antoine Wesley0100
Eno Benjamin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.0%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

4.75%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.2%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.61
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.64
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.67