Closing spread
ARI -7
Total
42
Model margin
+2.7est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.132EPA / play+0.079
- 41.2%Success rate46.8%
- -0.158EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.037
- 7.3%Explosive rate9.4%
- -7.50CPOE+4.19
- 36.1%Third-down rate45.2%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 1.43Points / drive2.37
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 14–7 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. ARI are 8-13 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PJ Walker | 22/29 | 167 | 0 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 3/4 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 13 | 95 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 1 |
| PJ Walker | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 10 | 10 | 66 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 6 | 37 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 4 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Brandon Zylstra | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 11/20 | 107 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Streveler | 6/9 | 36 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Eno Benjamin | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Chris Streveler | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 7 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| James Conner | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Antoine Wesley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.61
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.64
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.67