Closing spread
CAR -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.005EPA / play-0.048
- 45.3%Success rate40.9%
- +0.043EPA / dropback-0.038
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.062
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.7%
- -0.78CPOE-4.49
- 40.4%Third-down rate36.5%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 1.89Points / drive1.61
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 14–7 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. CAR are 13-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 35/46 | 363 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 7 | 9 | 84 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 8 | 12 | 79 | 2 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 10 | 11 | 74 | 0 |
| John Brown | 4 | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Brittan Golden | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Ifeanyi Momah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 14/27 | 212 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 25 | 95 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Cam Newton | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Benjamin | 2 | 5 | 73 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 5 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.4%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.56
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.26