2016 · Week 8

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

20·30

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CAR -2.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

-0.3est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.005EPA / play-0.048
  • 45.3%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.043EPA / dropback-0.038
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.062
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -0.78CPOE-4.49
  • 40.4%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 65.4%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.61
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 14–7 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. CAR are 13-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2CAR @ ARI22–27ARI
2024 · W16ARI @ CAR30–36CAR
2022 · W4ARI @ CAR26–16ARI
2021 · W10CAR @ ARI34–10CAR
2020 · W4ARI @ CAR21–31CAR
2019 · W3CAR @ ARI38–20CAR
2015 · playoffsARI @ CAR15–49CAR
2014 · playoffsARI @ CAR16–27CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–CAR
ARIQ1 15:00618Opp touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 11:483-9Punt0–7
CARQ1 10:2750Punt0–7
ARIQ1 8:02537Punt0–7
CARQ1 6:18975Touchdown0–14
ARIQ1 2:24611Punt0–14
CARQ2 14:45770Touchdown0–21
ARIQ2 11:053-8Punt0–21
CARQ2 9:161235Field goal0–24
ARIQ2 2:451060Touchdown7–24
CARQ2 0:2011End of half7–24
CARQ3 15:00741Field goal7–27
ARIQ3 11:563-3Punt7–27
CARQ3 10:25955Field goal7–30
ARIQ3 7:181075Touchdown14–30
CARQ3 1:4534Punt14–30
ARIQ3 0:46846Punt14–30
CARQ4 12:02414Punt14–30
ARIQ4 9:501492Touchdown20–30
CARQ4 5:01314Turnover20–30
ARIQ4 3:1910Turnover20–30
CARQ4 3:13740Turnover on downs20–30
ARIQ4 0:19121End of half20–30

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer35/4636331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson10242.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Johnson79840
J.J. Nelson812792
Larry Fitzgerald1011740
John Brown44491
Jermaine Gresham35320
Brittan Golden22290
Andre Ellington11160
Ifeanyi Momah0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton14/2721200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart25953.82
Cam Newton7436.10
Fozzy Whittaker210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kelvin Benjamin25730
Ted Ginn56530
Devin Funchess34380
Jonathan Stewart12250
Greg Olsen13110
Fozzy Whittaker1290
Corey Brown1530

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

7.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.4%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.56
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-0.26