Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+3.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.133EPA / play+0.074
- 47.7%Success rate45.5%
- +0.260EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.059EPA / rush-0.022
- 10.8%Explosive rate10.3%
- +4.51CPOE+0.41
- 47.4%Third-down rate42.1%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
- 2.34Points / drive2.31
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 14–7 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. CAR are 13-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 23/40 | 235 | 1 | 4 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 15 | 60 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Andre Ellington | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 9 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 3 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 2 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| John Brown | 2 | 8 | 23 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 19/28 | 335 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 19 | 83 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 10 | 47 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 1 |
| Derek Anderson | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 6 | 8 | 113 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 4 | 7 | 113 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 2 | 52 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.11
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.52