2015 · CON

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

15·49

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 39°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CAR -3.5

Total

47

Model margin

+3.5est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.133EPA / play+0.074
  • 47.7%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.260EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.059EPA / rush-0.022
  • 10.8%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +4.51CPOE+0.41
  • 47.4%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
  • 2.34Points / drive2.31
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 14–7 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. CAR are 13-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2CAR @ ARI22–27ARI
2024 · W16ARI @ CAR30–36CAR
2022 · W4ARI @ CAR26–16ARI
2021 · W10CAR @ ARI34–10CAR
2020 · W4ARI @ CAR21–31CAR
2019 · W3CAR @ ARI38–20CAR
2016 · W8ARI @ CAR20–30CAR
2014 · playoffsARI @ CAR16–27CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–CAR
ARIQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:26739Field goal0–3
ARIQ1 9:30614Punt0–3
CARQ1 7:47544Touchdown0–10
ARIQ1 4:31625Punt0–10
CARQ1 1:48388Touchdown0–17
ARIQ1 0:49742Turnover0–17
CARQ2 12:433-1Punt0–17
ARIQ2 11:471059Touchdown7–17
CARQ2 5:4437Punt7–17
CARQ2 4:45641Touchdown7–24
ARIQ2 1:5610Turnover7–24
CARQ2 1:4720Turnover7–24
ARIQ2 0:5610Turnover7–24
CARQ2 0:4900End of half7–24
CARQ3 15:001075Field goal7–27
ARIQ3 7:5038Punt7–27
CARQ3 6:19879Touchdown7–34
ARIQ3 2:081080Touchdown15–34
CARQ4 14:1633Punt15–34
ARIQ4 12:58615Turnover15–34
CARQ4 11:38566Touchdown15–34
CARQ4 7:45114Touchdown15–34
CARQ4 7:0139Touchdown15–42
ARIQ4 5:2610Opp touchdown15–49
CARQ4 5:1100Opp touchdown15–49
ARIQ4 5:11213Turnover15–49
CARQ4 4:30416Turnover on downs15–49
ARIQ4 1:17528End of half15–49

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer23/4023514
Larry Fitzgerald0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson15604.01
Andre Ellington100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Johnson99680
Michael Floyd38370
Darren Fells24361
Larry Fitzgerald47300
J.J. Nelson23250
John Brown28230
Jaron Brown11160
Andre Ellington0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton19/2833521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart19834.40
Cam Newton10474.72
Ted Ginn12222.01
Derek Anderson2-2-1.00
Fozzy Whittaker2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen681130
Corey Brown471131
Ted Ginn22520
Devin Funchess23211
Jerricho Cotchery22170
Jonathan Stewart2250
Ed Dickson0200
Fozzy Whittaker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.5%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.11
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.52