Closing spread
ARI -2.5
Total
46
Model margin
+3.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.082EPA / play+0.014
- 43.3%Success rate42.7%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.020
- -0.106EPA / rush+0.004
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.9%
- -2.45CPOE-1.81
- 32.4%Third-down rate36.0%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.56Points / drive1.85
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 14–7 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. ARI are 8-13 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Allen | 19/26 | 261 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 24 | 153 | 6.4 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Reggie Bonnafon | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Allen | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 6 | 7 | 75 | 2 |
| Curtis Samuel | 5 | 7 | 53 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 2 | 52 | 1 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 30/43 | 173 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 8 | 69 | 8.6 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 10 | 12 | 59 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 7 | 36 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 6 | 9 | 28 | 1 |
| KeeSean Johnson | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.95
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.45