2019 · Week 3

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Kyle Allen

38·20

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -2.5

Total

46

Model margin

+3.5est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapCardinals
  • -0.082EPA / play+0.014
  • 43.3%Success rate42.7%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback+0.020
  • -0.106EPA / rush+0.004
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -2.45CPOE-1.81
  • 32.4%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.85
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 14–7 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. ARI are 8-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2CAR @ ARI22–27ARI
2024 · W16ARI @ CAR30–36CAR
2022 · W4ARI @ CAR26–16ARI
2021 · W10CAR @ ARI34–10CAR
2020 · W4ARI @ CAR21–31CAR
2016 · W8ARI @ CAR20–30CAR
2015 · playoffsARI @ CAR15–49CAR
2014 · playoffsARI @ CAR16–27CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ARI
CARQ1 15:00944Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 10:471474Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 4:301160Touchdown7–7
ARIQ2 14:09724Punt7–7
CARQ2 10:39528Punt7–7
ARIQ2 7:341438Field goal7–10
CARQ2 1:36375Touchdown14–10
ARIQ2 0:4935Punt14–10
CARQ2 0:1933End of half14–10
ARIQ3 15:001070Touchdown14–17
CARQ3 11:20775Touchdown21–17
ARIQ3 7:441149Field goal21–20
CARQ3 2:47284Touchdown28–20
ARIQ3 1:5321Turnover28–20
CARQ3 1:14619Touchdown35–20
ARIQ4 13:3255Punt35–20
CARQ4 11:11410Punt35–20
ARIQ4 8:2130Punt35–20
CARQ4 7:0133Punt35–20
ARIQ4 5:2330Turnover35–20
CARQ4 4:4539Field goal38–20
ARIQ4 4:273-18Punt38–20
CARQ4 2:3325End of half38–20

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Allen19/2626140

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey241536.41
DJ Moore11212.00
Reggie Bonnafon252.50
Alex Armah144.00
Kyle Allen3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen67752
Curtis Samuel57531
DJ Moore12521
Jarius Wright22380
Christian McCaffrey34350
Chris Hogan1260
Alex Armah1120

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray30/4317322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyler Murray8698.60
David Johnson11373.40
Chase Edmonds3155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk1012590
Larry Fitzgerald57361
David Johnson69281
KeeSean Johnson34130
Chase Edmonds12100
Michael Crabtree2290
Charles Clay1190
Damiere Byrd2490
Trent Sherfield0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.3%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.95
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.45