Closing spread
CHI -5.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
-3.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play-0.101
- 39.4%Success rate39.1%
- -0.033EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.099EPA / rush-0.192
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.8%
- 33.3%Third-down rate33.9%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate47.0%
- 1.28Points / drive0.89
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.146EPA / play allowed+0.064
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 17/30 | 252 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 25 | 76 | 3.0 | 0 |
| James Allen | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jim Miller | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Booker | 9 | 11 | 115 | 0 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 4 | 6 | 107 | 1 |
| David Terrell | 1 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Fred Baxter | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Leon Johnson | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Merritt | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Detmer | 31/51 | 303 | 0 | 2 |
| Lamont Warren | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamont Warren | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Ty Detmer | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brock Olivo | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Desmond Howard | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 7 | 12 | 95 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 6 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 2 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Desmond Howard | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.0%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.11
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.40