2001 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jim Miller

24·0

Lions

Detroit

QB Ty Detmer

Pontiac Silverdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

CHI -5.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

-3.4est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapLions
  • -0.063EPA / play-0.101
  • 39.4%Success rate39.1%
  • -0.033EPA / dropback-0.060
  • -0.099EPA / rush-0.192
  • 7.6%Explosive rate7.8%
  • 33.3%Third-down rate33.9%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate47.0%
  • 1.28Points / drive0.89
  • 2.1%Turnover rate3.4%
  • -0.146EPA / play allowed+0.064

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DET
CHIQ1 15:00574Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 12:18839Punt7–0
CHIQ1 8:12780Touchdown14–0
DETQ1 4:54829Punt14–0
CHIQ1 0:0935Punt14–0
DETQ2 13:383-10Punt14–0
CHIQ2 11:4840Punt14–0
DETQ2 11:1531Punt14–0
CHIQ2 10:141063Field goal17–0
DETQ2 5:47433Turnover17–0
CHIQ2 3:5958Punt17–0
DETQ2 1:41829Punt17–0
CHIQ2 0:161-1End of half17–0
DETQ3 15:0039Punt17–0
CHIQ3 13:47522Punt17–0
DETQ3 11:22517Punt17–0
CHIQ3 9:08619Punt17–0
DETQ3 5:50969Turnover17–0
CHIQ3 2:2237Punt17–0
DETQ3 0:49948Turnover17–0
CHIQ4 12:08943Punt17–0
DETQ4 6:17956Turnover on downs17–0
CHIQ4 3:4839Punt17–0
DETQ4 2:4539Opp touchdown24–0
CHIQ4 2:1200Opp touchdown24–0
DETQ4 2:1243Turnover24–0
CHIQ4 1:403-3End of half24–0

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jim Miller17/3025220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Thomas25763.00
James Allen11111.00
Jim Miller4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marty Booker9111150
D'Wayne Bates461071
David Terrell12201
Fred Baxter24100
Leon Johnson1200
Ahmad Merritt0400

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ty Detmer31/5130302
Lamont Warren0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamont Warren6193.20
Ty Detmer2189.00
Aveion Cason2105.00
Brock Olivo166.00
Desmond Howard155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnnie Morton712950
David Sloan68650
Bert Emanuel26270
Desmond Howard23230
Lamont Warren24160
Larry Foster14100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.0%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.85
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.11
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.40