Closing spread
TEN -5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play-0.011
- 36.9%Success rate39.7%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.112
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.193
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- 31.3%Third-down rate42.1%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.05Points / drive1.49
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.096EPA / play allowed+0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 47 points. TEN are 8-10-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| TEN | Q1 10:16 | 9 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q1 4:58 | 3 | 60 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| TEN | Q1 4:23 | 6 | 76 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| CLE | Q1 1:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–14 |
| TEN | Q2 14:43 | 5 | 19 | Turnover | 14–14 |
| CLE | Q2 11:44 | 5 | 3 | Punt | 14–14 |
| TEN | Q2 8:47 | 2 | 7 | Turnover | 14–14 |
| CLE | Q2 8:05 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 17–14 |
| TEN | Q2 6:00 | 3 | 71 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| CLE | Q2 4:56 | 8 | 59 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| TEN | Q2 1:52 | 7 | 60 | Field goal | 24–24 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 71 | Touchdown | 24–31 |
| CLE | Q3 8:59 | 6 | 38 | Punt | 24–31 |
| TEN | Q3 5:34 | 8 | 30 | Punt | 24–31 |
| CLE | Q3 1:03 | 4 | 3 | Turnover | 24–37 |
| TEN | Q4 14:49 | 1 | 20 | Touchdown | 24–38 |
| CLE | Q4 14:43 | 10 | 59 | Touchdown | 31–38 |
| TEN | Q4 9:21 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 31–38 |
| CLE | Q4 7:35 | 4 | 83 | Touchdown | 38–38 |
| TEN | Q4 5:37 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 38–38 |
| CLE | Q4 3:23 | 8 | 21 | Field goal | 41–38 |
| TEN | Q4 0:55 | 5 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 41–38 |
| CLE | Q4 0:07 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 41–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 20/27 | 336 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Gay | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 21 | 42 | 2.0 | 2 |
| Tim Couch | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Morgan | 1 | 2 | 78 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 6 | 6 | 70 | 1 |
| Andre King | 3 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 3 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| JaJuan Dawson | 2 | 2 | 37 | 1 |
| O.J. Santiago | 3 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| Jake Moreland | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Benjamin Gay | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 16/25 | 274 | 2 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 26 | 130 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Dyson | 3 | 5 | 92 | 1 |
| Derrick Mason | 3 | 5 | 81 | 1 |
| Erron Kinney | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Drew Bennett | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.56