Closing spread
JAX -4.5
Total
40
Model margin
-1.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play-0.282
- 43.9%Success rate40.8%
- +0.002EPA / dropback-0.233
- +0.032EPA / rush-0.375
- 10.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- 36.1%Third-down rate34.6%
- 50.6%Red-zone TD rate26.3%
- 1.54Points / drive0.28
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.011EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.2 points. JAX are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 26/35 | 294 | 2 | 2 |
| Mark Brunell | 22/37 | 283 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stacey Mack | 16 | 125 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Priest Holmes | 27 | 91 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Elvis Joseph | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Damon Gibson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan McCardell | 7 | 12 | 132 | 1 |
| Eddie Kennison | 6 | 7 | 121 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 8 | 11 | 78 | 2 |
| Priest Holmes | 7 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 5 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Jimmy Smith | 5 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| Elvis Joseph | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Mikhael Ricks | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Snoop Minnis | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Damon Gibson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.3%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.05