2001 · Week 16

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Trent Green

30·26

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

JAX -4.5

Total

40

Model margin

-1.1est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.014EPA / play-0.282
  • 43.9%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.002EPA / dropback-0.233
  • +0.032EPA / rush-0.375
  • 10.8%Explosive rate8.2%
  • 36.1%Third-down rate34.6%
  • 50.6%Red-zone TD rate26.3%
  • 1.54Points / drive0.28
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.5%
  • -0.011EPA / play allowed-0.021

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.2 points. JAX are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5KC @ JAX28–31JAX
2023 · W2KC @ JAX17–9KC
2022 · playoffsJAX @ KC20–27KC
2022 · W10JAX @ KC17–27KC
2019 · W1KC @ JAX40–26KC
2018 · W5JAX @ KC14–30KC
2016 · W9JAX @ KC14–19KC
2013 · W1KC @ JAX28–2KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–JAX
JAXQ1 15:002-18Turnover0–0
KCQ1 14:12314Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 12:45979Opp touchdown13–1
KCQ1 8:18415Punt13–1
JAXQ1 6:0839Punt13–1
KCQ1 4:44516Punt13–1
JAXQ1 2:18413Punt13–1
KCQ2 14:4932Punt13–1
JAXQ2 13:46769Opp touchdown19–2
KCQ2 10:361041Touchdown26–2
JAXQ2 5:38563Field goal26–5
KCQ2 2:56416Turnover26–5
JAXQ2 1:53628Missed field goal26–5
KCQ2 0:34439Field goal29–5
KCQ3 15:003-2Turnover29–5
JAXQ3 13:393-3Punt29–5
KCQ3 11:571059Field goal32–5
JAXQ3 6:3132Punt32–5
KCQ3 5:28473Touchdown39–5
JAXQ3 3:3000Turnover39–5
KCQ3 3:19436Turnover39–5
JAXQ3 1:42877Opp touchdown45–6
KCQ4 13:25311Turnover45–6
JAXQ4 11:46318Turnover45–6
KCQ4 11:101046Field goal48–6
JAXQ4 5:11948Turnover on downs48–6
KCQ4 1:454-1Safety50–6
JAXQ4 0:46646End of half50–6

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Green26/3529422
Mark Brunell22/3728311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stacey Mack161257.81
Priest Holmes27913.41
Elvis Joseph6294.80
Mark Brunell3279.01
Tony Gonzalez199.00
Trent Green221.00
Damon Gibson111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan McCardell7121321
Eddie Kennison671210
Tony Gonzalez811782
Priest Holmes78530
Kyle Brady57510
Jimmy Smith59510
Elvis Joseph13240
Mikhael Ricks11210
Sean Dawkins23130
Stacey Mack1180
Snoop Minnis1370
Damon Gibson1140
Derrick Alexander0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.52.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.80%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.3%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.61
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.05