2022 · Week 10

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

17·27

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

KC -10

Total

51.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

KC perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.045EPA / play+0.179
  • 46.6%Success rate50.6%
  • +0.137EPA / dropback+0.273
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.019
  • 9.3%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +1.07CPOE+3.02
  • 42.0%Third-down rate49.4%
  • 59.3%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
  • 2.07Points / drive2.71
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.2 points. KC are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5KC @ JAX28–31JAX
2023 · W2KC @ JAX17–9KC
2022 · playoffsJAX @ KC20–27KC
2019 · W1KC @ JAX40–26KC
2018 · W5JAX @ KC14–30KC
2016 · W9JAX @ KC14–19KC
2013 · W1KC @ JAX28–2KC
2010 · W7JAX @ KC20–42KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–KC
KCQ1 15:0000Punt0–0
JAXQ1 14:59515Punt0–0
KCQ1 12:49971Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 8:56432Punt0–0
KCQ1 6:10580Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 3:323-6Punt0–7
KCQ1 1:12512Punt0–7
JAXQ2 14:35726Missed field goal0–7
KCQ2 11:18359Touchdown0–14
JAXQ2 9:55413Punt0–14
KCQ2 7:4936Punt0–14
JAXQ2 6:25424Punt0–14
KCQ2 3:21976Touchdown0–20
JAXQ2 0:46561Touchdown7–20
KCQ2 0:1100Turnover7–20
JAXQ2 0:0719Turnover7–20
JAXQ3 15:001763Field goal10–20
KCQ3 5:461078Touchdown10–27
JAXQ3 0:38624Punt10–27
KCQ4 12:08843Turnover10–27
JAXQ4 7:55854Touchdown17–27
KCQ4 5:261062End of half17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence29/4025920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne11454.10
Trevor Lawrence4266.50
JaMycal Hasty144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk9121052
Zay Jones810680
Marvin Jones13330
Travis Etienne33280
Evan Engram34140
Dan Arnold1180
Jamal Agnew3440
JaMycal Hasty12-10

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes26/3533141

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco16825.10
Patrick Mahomes7395.60
Kadarius Toney23316.50
Jerick McKinnon122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce67811
Marquez Valdes-Scantling34601
Kadarius Toney45571
Jerick McKinnon68560
JuJu Smith-Schuster24330
Noah Gray22201
Justin Watson11120
Joseph Fortson1160
Skyy Moore1160
Clyde Edwards-Helaire0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

3.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.33
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.04