Closing spread
KC -10
Total
51.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play+0.179
- 46.6%Success rate50.6%
- +0.137EPA / dropback+0.273
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.019
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.3%
- +1.07CPOE+3.02
- 42.0%Third-down rate49.4%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
- 2.07Points / drive2.71
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.2 points. KC are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 29/40 | 259 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 9 | 12 | 105 | 2 |
| Zay Jones | 8 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 26/35 | 331 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 16 | 82 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 7 | 81 | 1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 4 | 60 | 1 |
| Kadarius Toney | 4 | 5 | 57 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 6 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Joseph Fortson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.33
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.04