2016 · Week 9

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

14·19

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Nick Foles

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

KC -7

Total

42.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

KC perspective

Push chance

4.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.060EPA / play+0.012
  • 41.3%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback+0.084
  • -0.210EPA / rush-0.105
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -4.51CPOE+2.15
  • 34.7%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 71.4%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
  • 1.52Points / drive1.88
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.2 points. KC are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5KC @ JAX28–31JAX
2023 · W2KC @ JAX17–9KC
2022 · playoffsJAX @ KC20–27KC
2022 · W10JAX @ KC17–27KC
2019 · W1KC @ JAX40–26KC
2018 · W5JAX @ KC14–30KC
2013 · W1KC @ JAX28–2KC
2010 · W7JAX @ KC20–42KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–KC
JAXQ1 15:00627Punt0–0
KCQ1 12:06838Punt0–0
JAXQ1 8:29639Punt0–0
KCQ1 5:14527Punt0–0
KCQ1 2:03223Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 1:49762Turnover on downs0–7
KCQ2 14:2147Punt0–7
JAXQ2 12:2120Turnover0–7
KCQ2 12:0035Field goal0–10
JAXQ2 9:54620Punt0–10
KCQ2 6:13626Punt0–10
JAXQ2 3:211273Touchdown7–10
KCQ2 0:0200End of half7–10
KCQ3 15:0037Punt7–10
JAXQ3 12:44521Turnover7–10
KCQ3 10:1535Field goal7–13
JAXQ3 8:4369Punt7–13
KCQ3 6:28525Field goal7–16
JAXQ3 3:59730Missed field goal7–16
KCQ3 0:29868Field goal7–19
JAXQ4 10:20574Turnover7–19
KCQ4 8:233-5Punt7–19
JAXQ4 6:34961Touchdown14–19
KCQ4 4:103-7Punt14–19
JAXQ4 3:01633Turnover on downs14–19
KCQ4 1:55215End of half14–19

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles22/4125221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory181075.90
Blake Bortles6549.00
T.J. Yeldon7334.70
Marqise Lee11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marqise Lee48840
Allen Robinson712761
T.J. Yeldon56321
Marcedes Lewis24230
Julius Thomas22210
Arrelious Benn11160
Chris Ivory1200
Bryan Walters0100
Allen Hurns0400

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles20/3318710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Charcandrick West13393.00
Tyreek Hill22110.50
Knile Davis3103.30
Nick Foles3-3-1.00
Albert Wilson1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce57580
Albert Wilson38421
Charcandrick West34350
Chris Conley34280
Tyreek Hill35110
Knile Davis1170
Jeremy Maclin0100
Demetrius Harris0100
James O'Shaughnessy1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

4.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.7%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.92
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.45
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+0.97