Closing spread
KC -7
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.060EPA / play+0.012
- 41.3%Success rate42.7%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.084
- -0.210EPA / rush-0.105
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.5%
- -4.51CPOE+2.15
- 34.7%Third-down rate38.7%
- 71.4%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
- 1.52Points / drive1.88
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.2 points. KC are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 22/41 | 252 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 18 | 107 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 6 | 54 | 9.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marqise Lee | 4 | 8 | 84 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 7 | 12 | 76 | 1 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 5 | 6 | 32 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Walters | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 20/33 | 187 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charcandrick West | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 3 | 8 | 42 | 1 |
| Charcandrick West | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
4.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.92
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.45
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.97