2023 · Week 2

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

17·9

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

KC -3.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+0.2est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.021EPA / play-0.032
  • 43.8%Success rate43.1%
  • +0.082EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.192
  • 7.6%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +1.52CPOE+1.62
  • 44.9%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 51.6%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.84
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.2 points. JAX are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5KC @ JAX28–31JAX
2022 · playoffsJAX @ KC20–27KC
2022 · W10JAX @ KC17–27KC
2019 · W1KC @ JAX40–26KC
2018 · W5JAX @ KC14–30KC
2016 · W9JAX @ KC14–19KC
2013 · W1KC @ JAX28–2KC
2010 · W7JAX @ KC20–42KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00729Punt0–0
KCQ1 10:5239Punt0–0
JAXQ1 9:1230Punt0–0
KCQ1 8:461059Punt0–0
JAXQ1 4:16821Punt0–0
JAXQ2 14:5138Field goal0–3
KCQ2 12:59527Turnover0–3
JAXQ2 10:5710Turnover0–3
KCQ2 10:5421Turnover0–3
JAXQ2 9:411133Turnover on downs0–3
KCQ2 4:04855Touchdown7–3
JAXQ2 0:27444Field goal7–6
KCQ3 15:00781Touchdown14–6
JAXQ3 11:30513Punt14–6
KCQ3 8:25731Punt14–6
JAXQ3 4:4531Punt14–6
KCQ3 3:453-6Punt14–6
JAXQ3 1:59963Field goal14–9
KCQ4 13:431265Field goal17–9
JAXQ4 8:101259Turnover on downs17–9
KCQ4 4:18783End of half17–9

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes29/4130521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco12705.80
Patrick Mahomes7304.30
Kadarius Toney133.00
Clyde Edwards-Helaire100.00
Jerick McKinnon1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Skyy Moore34701
Justin Watson35620
Noah Gray33380
Kadarius Toney55350
Travis Kelce49261
Jerick McKinnon33240
Rashee Rice22200
Clyde Edwards-Helaire22170
Marquez Valdes-Scantling23130
Richie James0100
Isiah Pacheco1200

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence22/4121600
Christian Kirk1/1-100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne12403.30
Trevor Lawrence5265.20
D'Ernest Johnson188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk11141100
Evan Engram68570
Calvin Ridley28320
D'Ernest Johnson1190
Jamal Agnew1150
Travis Etienne2320
Zay Jones0600

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.7%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+0.24