Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play-0.032
- 43.8%Success rate43.1%
- +0.082EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.192
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.1%
- +1.52CPOE+1.62
- 44.9%Third-down rate38.5%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 1.89Points / drive1.84
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.2 points. JAX are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 29/41 | 305 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 12 | 70 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skyy Moore | 3 | 4 | 70 | 1 |
| Justin Watson | 3 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 5 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 9 | 26 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Rashee Rice | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Richie James | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 22/41 | 216 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1/1 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 11 | 14 | 110 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 6 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 2 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.24