2013 · Week 1

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

28·2

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blaine Gabbert

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

KC -3.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

-3.3est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.023EPA / play-0.156
  • 42.0%Success rate38.3%
  • +0.073EPA / dropback-0.143
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.181
  • 9.3%Explosive rate6.6%
  • -2.44CPOE-4.13
  • 34.4%Third-down rate31.0%
  • 60.9%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.03
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.2 points. JAX are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5KC @ JAX28–31JAX
2023 · W2KC @ JAX17–9KC
2022 · playoffsJAX @ KC20–27KC
2022 · W10JAX @ KC17–27KC
2019 · W1KC @ JAX40–26KC
2018 · W5JAX @ KC14–30KC
2016 · W9JAX @ KC14–19KC
2010 · W7JAX @ KC20–42KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–JAX
JAXQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:2933Safety0–2
JAXQ1 12:263-7Punt0–2
KCQ1 10:24324Touchdown7–2
JAXQ1 9:0431Punt7–2
KCQ1 7:38617Punt7–2
JAXQ1 4:40513Turnover7–2
KCQ1 2:08221Touchdown14–2
JAXQ1 1:3533Punt14–2
KCQ1 0:41527Punt14–2
KCQ2 12:5900Punt14–2
KCQ2 12:3210Punt14–2
JAXQ2 12:1731Punt14–2
KCQ2 11:08857Touchdown21–2
JAXQ2 6:26421Punt21–2
KCQ2 3:22621Punt21–2
JAXQ2 1:31610End of half21–2
KCQ3 15:00534Punt21–2
JAXQ3 11:5155Punt21–2
KCQ3 9:27522Punt21–2
JAXQ3 7:023-3Punt21–2
KCQ3 5:4736Punt21–2
JAXQ3 4:4537Punt21–2
KCQ3 2:55725Punt21–2
JAXQ4 13:4130Opp touchdown28–2
JAXQ4 12:51612Punt28–2
KCQ4 10:5133Punt28–2
JAXQ4 9:51826Punt28–2
KCQ4 6:04433Punt28–2
JAXQ4 2:561382Turnover on downs28–2
KCQ4 0:4100End of half28–2

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith21/3417320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles16774.81
Alex Smith4256.30
Knile Davis4123.00
Cyrus Gray284.00
Chase Daniel1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dexter McCluster35430
Dwayne Bowe46300
Jamaal Charles36230
Donnie Avery25111
Anthony Fasano2580
Cyrus Gray1160
Knile Davis1150
Junior Hemingway1131

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert16/3512102
Chad Henne3/63600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew15453.00
Blaine Gabbert4164.00
Justin Forsett177.00
Jordan Todman122.00
Denard Robinson210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cecil Shorts311400
Allen Reisner35310
Justin Forsett45220
Jordan Todman34200
Mike Brown13140
Ace Sanders39140
Clay Harbor1150
Maurice Jones-Drew0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.2%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.88
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.34