Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
-3.3est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.023EPA / play-0.156
- 42.0%Success rate38.3%
- +0.073EPA / dropback-0.143
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.181
- 9.3%Explosive rate6.6%
- -2.44CPOE-4.13
- 34.4%Third-down rate31.0%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.79Points / drive1.03
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.2 points. JAX are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 21/34 | 173 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 16 | 77 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cyrus Gray | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dexter McCluster | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 2 | 5 | 11 | 1 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Cyrus Gray | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Junior Hemingway | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 16/35 | 121 | 0 | 2 |
| Chad Henne | 3/6 | 36 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Shorts | 3 | 11 | 40 | 0 |
| Allen Reisner | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Mike Brown | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Ace Sanders | 3 | 9 | 14 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.2%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.34