2022 · DIV

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

20·27

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

KC -10

Total

52.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

KC perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.045EPA / play+0.179
  • 46.6%Success rate50.6%
  • +0.137EPA / dropback+0.273
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.019
  • 9.3%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +1.07CPOE+3.02
  • 42.0%Third-down rate49.4%
  • 59.3%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
  • 2.07Points / drive2.71
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.2 points. KC are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5KC @ JAX28–31JAX
2023 · W2KC @ JAX17–9KC
2022 · W10JAX @ KC17–27KC
2019 · W1KC @ JAX40–26KC
2018 · W5JAX @ KC14–30KC
2016 · W9JAX @ KC14–19KC
2013 · W1KC @ JAX28–2KC
2010 · W7JAX @ KC20–42KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–KC
JAXQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:561283Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 7:56539Touchdown7–7
KCQ1 5:041038Field goal7–10
JAXQ2 14:09846Punt7–10
KCQ2 9:591283Touchdown7–17
JAXQ2 3:541052Field goal10–17
KCQ2 0:2700End of half10–17
KCQ3 15:00613Punt10–17
JAXQ3 12:02725Punt10–17
KCQ3 8:2639Punt10–17
JAXQ3 6:08611Punt10–17
KCQ3 2:25539Field goal10–20
JAXQ3 0:08780Touchdown17–20
KCQ4 11:491070Touchdown17–27
JAXQ4 7:08849Turnover17–27
KCQ4 5:2939Punt17–27
JAXQ4 4:1824Turnover17–27
KCQ4 3:48520Punt17–27
JAXQ4 1:04437Field goal20–27
KCQ4 0:2500End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence24/3921711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne10626.21
JaMycal Hasty4369.00
Trevor Lawrence3268.70
Christian Kirk11818.00
Jamal Agnew122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Jones57830
Christian Kirk714521
Evan Engram56310
Marvin Jones13210
Travis Etienne33180
JaMycal Hasty1270
Jamal Agnew2350

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes22/3019520
Chad Henne5/72310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco12957.90
Jerick McKinnon11252.30
Kadarius Toney11414.00
Patrick Mahomes382.70
Skyy Moore133.00
Noah Gray100.00
Chad Henne1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce1417982
Kadarius Toney57360
JuJu Smith-Schuster22290
Noah Gray12270
Justin Watson11120
Marquez Valdes-Scantling1261
Isiah Pacheco1160
Blake Bell1240
Skyy Moore1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.7%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.33
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.60