Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
49
Model margin
-2.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.135EPA / play-0.053
- 47.0%Success rate39.3%
- +0.247EPA / dropback-0.010
- -0.094EPA / rush-0.145
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.4%
- +1.86CPOE-3.03
- 48.7%Third-down rate35.4%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 2.59Points / drive1.61
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.2 points. JAX are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 25/33 | 378 | 3 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 10 | 81 | 8.1 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 13 | 26 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 9 | 11 | 198 | 3 |
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 8 | 88 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 6 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Darwin Thompson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 22/25 | 275 | 2 | 1 |
| Nick Foles | 5/8 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 13 | 66 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Chark | 4 | 4 | 146 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 6 | 7 | 97 | 1 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 5 | 6 | 30 | 1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.5%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.69
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.12
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.07