2019 · Week 1

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

40·26

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Nick Foles

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 91°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

KC -3.5

Total

49

Model margin

-2.1est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.135EPA / play-0.053
  • 47.0%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.247EPA / dropback-0.010
  • -0.094EPA / rush-0.145
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +1.86CPOE-3.03
  • 48.7%Third-down rate35.4%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
  • 2.59Points / drive1.61
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.2 points. JAX are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5KC @ JAX28–31JAX
2023 · W2KC @ JAX17–9KC
2022 · playoffsJAX @ KC20–27KC
2022 · W10JAX @ KC17–27KC
2018 · W5JAX @ KC14–30KC
2016 · W9JAX @ KC14–19KC
2013 · W1KC @ JAX28–2KC
2010 · W7JAX @ KC20–42KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–JAX
KCQ1 15:00375Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 13:2436Punt7–0
KCQ1 11:44570Field goal10–0
JAXQ1 8:57870Touchdown10–7
KCQ1 5:23685Touchdown17–7
JAXQ1 2:36966Field goal17–10
KCQ2 11:36768Field goal20–10
JAXQ2 7:56580Field goal20–13
KCQ2 4:221047Field goal23–13
JAXQ2 0:24311End of half23–13
JAXQ3 15:001049Turnover23–13
KCQ3 8:501449Touchdown30–13
JAXQ3 2:2547Punt30–13
KCQ3 0:151057Touchdown37–13
JAXQ4 10:56779Touchdown37–19
KCQ4 7:3245Punt37–19
JAXQ4 5:2510Turnover37–19
KCQ4 5:1445Field goal40–19
JAXQ4 3:33760Touchdown40–26
KCQ4 1:55431End of half40–26

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes25/3337830
Matt Moore0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy10818.10
Damien Williams13262.01
Tyreek Hill155.00
Patrick Mahomes122.00
Matt Moore1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammy Watkins9111983
Travis Kelce38880
Damien Williams66390
Tyreek Hill22160
LeSean McCoy11120
Blake Bell1170
Darwin Thompson1130
Demarcus Robinson1200
Mecole Hardman0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew22/2527521
Nick Foles5/87510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette13665.10
Ryquell Armstead177.00
Gardner Minshew166.00
Dede Westbrook122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Chark441461
Chris Conley67971
James O'Shaughnessy45320
Dede Westbrook56301
Leonard Fournette46280
Geoff Swaim44170
Ryquell Armstead0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.5%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.69
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.12
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.07