2018 · Week 5

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

14·30

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

KC -3

Total

48

Model margin

+4.8est.

KC perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.130EPA / play+0.236
  • 40.4%Success rate50.0%
  • -0.101EPA / dropback+0.349
  • -0.184EPA / rush+0.018
  • 7.4%Explosive rate12.1%
  • -4.63CPOE+4.64
  • 40.5%Third-down rate47.8%
  • 46.2%Red-zone TD rate75.5%
  • 1.26Points / drive3.03
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.2 points. KC are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5KC @ JAX28–31JAX
2023 · W2KC @ JAX17–9KC
2022 · playoffsJAX @ KC20–27KC
2022 · W10JAX @ KC17–27KC
2019 · W1KC @ JAX40–26KC
2016 · W9JAX @ KC14–19KC
2013 · W1KC @ JAX28–2KC
2010 · W7JAX @ KC20–42KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–KC
JAXQ1 15:00613Punt0–0
KCQ1 12:021073Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 6:39538Punt0–7
KCQ1 4:211387Field goal0–10
JAXQ2 13:301372Turnover on downs0–10
KCQ2 7:39829Turnover0–10
JAXQ2 4:211-8Turnover0–10
KCQ2 4:15527Field goal0–13
JAXQ2 1:5610Opp touchdown0–20
JAXQ2 1:491068Turnover0–20
KCQ2 0:1200End of half0–20
KCQ3 15:00514Punt0–20
JAXQ3 13:13432Punt0–20
KCQ3 11:031193Field goal0–23
JAXQ3 5:27675Touchdown7–23
KCQ3 3:10664Touchdown7–30
JAXQ4 14:571153Turnover7–30
KCQ4 11:1938Turnover7–30
JAXQ4 9:481443Touchdown14–30
KCQ4 5:4600Turnover on downs14–30
JAXQ4 5:46639Turnover on downs14–30
KCQ4 4:31731Punt14–30
JAXQ4 1:02677Turnover14–30
KCQ4 0:0400End of half14–30

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles33/6143014

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Yeldon10535.30
Blake Bortles4348.51
Corey Grant188.00
Brandon Wilds263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donte Moncrief614760
Keelan Cole410700
T.J. Yeldon811691
DJ Chark24680
Niles Paul79650
Dede Westbrook35550
James O'Shaughnessy36270
Austin Seferian-Jenkins0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes22/3831302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt22874.01
Tyreek Hill22613.00
Patrick Mahomes4133.31
Spencer Ware100.00
Damien Williams100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce581000
Sammy Watkins68780
Tyreek Hill47610
Chris Conley25210
Spencer Ware11130
De'Anthony Thomas11130
Kareem Hunt1270
Demetrius Harris1250
Demarcus Robinson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.8%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.77