Closing spread
KC -3
Total
48
Model margin
+4.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.130EPA / play+0.236
- 40.4%Success rate50.0%
- -0.101EPA / dropback+0.349
- -0.184EPA / rush+0.018
- 7.4%Explosive rate12.1%
- -4.63CPOE+4.64
- 40.5%Third-down rate47.8%
- 46.2%Red-zone TD rate75.5%
- 1.26Points / drive3.03
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.2 points. KC are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 33/61 | 430 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 10 | 53 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Corey Grant | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Wilds | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donte Moncrief | 6 | 14 | 76 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 4 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 8 | 11 | 69 | 1 |
| DJ Chark | 2 | 4 | 68 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 7 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 3 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 22/38 | 313 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 22 | 87 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Spencer Ware | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 8 | 100 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 6 | 8 | 78 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.77