2025 · Week 5

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

28·31

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

KC -3.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+4.7est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.042EPA / play+0.039
  • 44.5%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.060EPA / rush-0.073
  • 7.2%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -1.09CPOE-1.56
  • 39.4%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 54.7%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
  • 2.23Points / drive2.30
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.2 points. JAX are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W2KC @ JAX17–9KC
2022 · playoffsJAX @ KC20–27KC
2022 · W10JAX @ KC17–27KC
2019 · W1KC @ JAX40–26KC
2018 · W5JAX @ KC14–30KC
2016 · W9JAX @ KC14–19KC
2013 · W1KC @ JAX28–2KC
2010 · W7JAX @ KC20–42KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–JAX
JAXQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:24750Punt0–0
JAXQ1 9:31313Punt0–0
KCQ1 8:29987Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 4:02959Turnover7–0
KCQ2 13:36597Touchdown14–0
JAXQ2 10:441462Touchdown14–7
KCQ2 2:3832Punt14–7
JAXQ2 0:54420End of half14–7
KCQ3 15:0038Punt14–7
JAXQ3 13:15882Touchdown14–14
KCQ3 8:401165Opp touchdown14–21
KCQ3 2:19851Punt14–21
JAXQ4 13:5123Turnover14–21
KCQ4 13:03219Touchdown21–21
JAXQ4 12:20720Field goal21–24
KCQ4 8:081286Touchdown28–24
JAXQ4 1:45852Touchdown28–31
KCQ4 0:23411End of half28–31

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes29/4131811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Patrick Mahomes66010.01
Kareem Hunt7497.02
Isiah Pacheco7365.10
Xavier Worthy199.00
Brashard Smith144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyquan Thornton35900
Travis Kelce78611
Marquise Brown48480
Xavier Worthy69420
Brashard Smith33320
Isiah Pacheco33200
JuJu Smith-Schuster23170
Kareem Hunt1180

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence18/2522111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trevor Lawrence10545.42
Travis Etienne12494.10
Bhayshul Tuten461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Thomas Jr.46800
Brenton Strange11220
Parker Washington23161
Dyami Brown24150
Travis Etienne3490
Johnny Mundt1170
Bhayshul Tuten1150
Hunter Long1130
Tim Patrick0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

6.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.74