Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.039
- 44.5%Success rate44.5%
- +0.093EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.073
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.09CPOE-1.56
- 39.4%Third-down rate40.9%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
- 2.23Points / drive2.30
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.2 points. JAX are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 29/41 | 318 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 60 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 7 | 49 | 7.0 | 2 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Brashard Smith | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyquan Thornton | 3 | 5 | 90 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 8 | 61 | 1 |
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 6 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Brashard Smith | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 18/25 | 221 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Travis Etienne | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 4 | 6 | 80 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Dyami Brown | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Hunter Long | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
6.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.04
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.74