2001 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Spergon Wynn

13·24

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 19°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

GB -12

Total

40

Model margin

+10.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

1.5%est.

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPackers
  • -0.050EPA / play+0.054
  • 42.2%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.012EPA / dropback+0.197
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.149
  • 7.6%Explosive rate9.5%
  • 42.5%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate63.7%
  • 1.40Points / drive1.76
  • 3.7%Turnover rate2.6%
  • +0.044EPA / play allowed-0.110

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–GB
MINQ1 15:001352Missed field goal0–0
GBQ1 6:4954Punt0–0
MINQ1 4:3334Punt0–0
GBQ1 3:1733Punt0–0
MINQ1 2:0332Punt0–0
GBQ1 0:5836Punt0–0
MINQ1 0:0000Punt0–0
MINQ2 15:00719Punt0–0
GBQ2 11:063-3Punt0–0
MINQ2 10:03428Field goal3–0
GBQ2 8:16955Touchdown3–7
MINQ2 3:1838Punt3–7
GBQ2 1:48525Punt3–7
MINQ2 0:3910Turnover3–7
MINQ2 0:17320End of half3–7
GBQ3 15:00615Punt3–7
MINQ3 11:55622Punt3–7
GBQ3 8:3833Punt3–7
MINQ3 6:2138Field goal6–7
GBQ3 5:0744Punt6–7
MINQ3 2:06512Turnover6–7
GBQ4 14:52524Field goal6–10
MINQ4 11:57559Touchdown13–10
GBQ4 10:03779Touchdown13–17
MINQ4 6:2834Opp touchdown13–24
GBQ4 5:2500Opp touchdown13–24
MINQ4 5:251664Turnover on downs13–24
GBQ4 1:202-2End of half13–24

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Spergon Wynn11/3011413

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Bennett251044.20
Spergon Wynn5336.60
Randy Moss11111.00
Jimmy Kleinsasser2105.00
Doug Chapman591.80
Cris Carter144.00
Travis Prentice242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Byron Chamberlain34661
Jake Reed25130
Cris Carter19110
Randy Moss25100
Michael Bennett23100
Andrew Jordan1140
Chris Walsh0100
Doug Chapman0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre18/2916900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Driver13131.01
Ahman Green16311.91
Brett Favre2-2-1.00
Dorsey Levens1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Freeman36430
Bubba Franks44400
Bill Schroeder36290
Corey Bradford25220
Ahman Green34170
Dorsey Levens1170
Tyrone Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +124.7%6.5%2.3%3.0%4.8%3.5%3.6%3.0%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

1.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

76.2%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.36
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+10.83