Closing spread
GB -12
Total
40
Model margin
+10.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.054
- 42.2%Success rate42.5%
- -0.012EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.149
- 7.6%Explosive rate9.5%
- 42.5%Third-down rate35.7%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate63.7%
- 1.40Points / drive1.76
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.044EPA / play allowed-0.110
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spergon Wynn | 11/30 | 114 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 25 | 104 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Spergon Wynn | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Cris Carter | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Chamberlain | 3 | 4 | 66 | 1 |
| Jake Reed | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Cris Carter | 1 | 9 | 11 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Andrew Jordan | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 18/29 | 169 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Driver | 1 | 31 | 31.0 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 16 | 31 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
76.2%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.91
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+4.36
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+10.83