Closing spread
PHI -5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.048EPA / play-0.036
- 40.3%Success rate39.2%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.151
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.6%
- 35.2%Third-down rate31.5%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.21Points / drive1.34
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.053EPA / play allowed-0.115
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 22/39 | 303 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 16 | 71 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 8 | 59 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 10 | 13 | 87 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 3 | 7 | 69 | 1 |
| Dan Campbell | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Marcellus Rivers | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 21/39 | 270 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Thrash | 7 | 14 | 143 | 1 |
| Chad Lewis | 7 | 8 | 74 | 2 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.51