2001 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

21·24

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Veterans Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 31°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

PHI -5

Total

34.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapEagles
  • -0.048EPA / play-0.036
  • 40.3%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback+0.031
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.151
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 35.2%Third-down rate31.5%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 1.21Points / drive1.34
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.053EPA / play allowed-0.115

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–PHI
NYGQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:24982Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 8:4938Punt0–7
PHIQ1 7:135-1Turnover0–7
NYGQ1 4:33212Turnover0–7
PHIQ1 3:51844Missed field goal0–7
NYGQ2 14:05511Punt0–7
PHIQ2 11:0463Punt0–7
NYGQ2 8:1735Punt0–7
PHIQ2 6:12620Punt0–7
NYGQ2 3:02941Punt0–7
PHIQ2 1:0028Turnover0–7
NYGQ2 0:171-1End of half0–7
PHIQ3 15:00319Punt6–7
NYGQ3 12:45160Touchdown7–7
PHIQ3 12:3433Punt7–7
NYGQ3 11:28611Punt7–7
PHIQ3 8:53614Punt7–7
NYGQ3 6:34748Field goal10–7
PHIQ3 2:3834Punt10–7
NYGQ3 0:224-8Punt10–13
PHIQ4 14:19157Touchdown10–14
NYGQ4 14:111158Field goal13–14
PHIQ4 8:4430Punt13–14
NYGQ4 7:34991Touchdown21–14
PHIQ4 2:43759Touchdown21–21
NYGQ4 1:4934Punt21–21
PHIQ4 0:58649Field goal21–24
NYGQ4 0:07176End of half21–24

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins22/3930310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber16714.40
Ron Dayne8597.41
Kerry Collins2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tiki Barber1013870
Amani Toomer37691
Dan Campbell24310
Ike Hilliard36190
Joe Jurevicius12180
Greg Comella2590
Marcellus Rivers1180
Jonathan Carter0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb21/3927031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donovan McNabb7486.90
Correll Buckhalter7395.60
Duce Staley8232.90
James Thrash11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Thrash7141431
Chad Lewis78742
Freddie Mitchell24300
Todd Pinkston26230
Cecil Martin1110
Duce Staley24-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.5%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.51