Closing spread
DEN -1
Total
41
Model margin
+2.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 80 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 9:03 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 7:03 | 6 | 3 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 3:45 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LV | Q1 2:19 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–3 |
| DEN | Q1 0:20 | 6 | 44 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| LV | Q2 12:55 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–6 |
| DEN | Q2 7:48 | 12 | 56 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| LV | Q2 1:52 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 10–13 |
| DEN | Q2 0:42 | 2 | 1 | End of half | 10–13 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 10–13 |
| LV | Q3 12:24 | 11 | 79 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| DEN | Q3 6:08 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–13 |
| LV | Q3 4:21 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–13 |
| DEN | Q3 3:23 | 17 | 71 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| LV | Q4 9:59 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 17–20 |
| DEN | Q4 7:46 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–20 |
| LV | Q4 5:31 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 17–20 |
| DEN | Q4 4:25 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–20 |
| LV | Q4 2:54 | 4 | 4 | Turnover on downs | 17–20 |
| DEN | Q4 2:00 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 17–23 |
| LV | Q4 1:32 | 11 | 58 | Turnover | 17–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 19/26 | 142 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Davis | 18 | 89 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Mike Anderson | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 8 | 12 | 56 | 1 |
| Scottie Montgomery | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Kevin Kasper | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrell Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+2.83
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.