Closing spread
PIT -8
Total
33.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.060EPA / play-0.090
- 42.5%Success rate39.0%
- +0.159EPA / dropback-0.080
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.106
- 11.5%Explosive rate6.9%
- 45.8%Third-down rate37.7%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate46.6%
- 1.58Points / drive0.98
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.112
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 19/35 | 251 | 3 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 25 | 55 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaxico Burress | 6 | 10 | 102 | 2 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 5 | 5 | 50 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 35/68 | 411 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 21 | 91 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnay Scott | 7 | 12 | 113 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 10 | 20 | 109 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 9 | 15 | 98 | 0 |
| Danny Farmer | 2 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| Chad Johnson | 2 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Kirk McMullen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.44