2001 · Week 16 · Division

Final / OT

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kordell Stewart

23·26

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jon Kitna

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 20°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PIT -8

Total

33.5

Model margin

-0.4est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBengals
  • +0.060EPA / play-0.090
  • 42.5%Success rate39.0%
  • +0.159EPA / dropback-0.080
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.106
  • 11.5%Explosive rate6.9%
  • 45.8%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 45.4%Red-zone TD rate46.6%
  • 1.58Points / drive0.98
  • 1.9%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.112

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CIN
CINQ1 15:0000Punt0–0
PITQ1 14:473-7Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:161186Missed field goal0–0
PITQ1 7:53377Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 6:2269Turnover on downs7–0
PITQ1 3:53345Touchdown14–0
CINQ1 2:433-1Punt14–0
PITQ1 1:4735Punt14–0
CINQ1 0:561078Missed field goal14–0
PITQ2 11:081055Opp touchdown14–7
CINQ2 4:4100Opp touchdown14–7
PITQ2 4:41834Field goal17–7
CINQ2 1:00848Field goal17–10
PITQ3 15:0034Punt17–10
CINQ3 13:501459Turnover on downs17–10
PITQ3 8:3736Punt17–10
CINQ3 6:0411Turnover17–10
PITQ3 5:55653Touchdown23–10
CINQ3 3:4123Turnover23–10
PITQ3 2:4035Turnover23–10
CINQ3 0:54744Punt23–10
PITQ4 13:1649Punt23–10
CINQ4 11:08726Turnover on downs23–10
PITQ4 8:3855Turnover23–10
CINQ4 6:12518Turnover on downs23–10
PITQ4 5:093-1Turnover23–10
CINQ4 3:54727Touchdown23–17
PITQ4 2:4600Touchdown23–17
CINQ4 2:411361Touchdown23–23
PITQ4 0:3710Turnover23–23
CINQ4 0:101-1End of half23–23
PITOT923Punt23–23
CINOT1086Field goal23–26

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kordell Stewart19/3525134

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala25552.20
Hines Ward11414.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Plaxico Burress6101022
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala55501
Hines Ward37420
Troy Edwards23250
Bobby Shaw23200
Jerame Tuman0400

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna35/6841121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Dillon21914.30
Brandon Bennett6447.30
Jon Kitna263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnay Scott7121130
Peter Warrick10201090
T.J. Houshmandzadeh915980
Danny Farmer24331
Chad Johnson27250
Brandon Bennett23110
Ron Dugans1161
Kirk McMullen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -82.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.9%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.01
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.44