2001 · Week 17 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
WAS -3.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.028EPA / play-0.103
- 39.3%Success rate38.9%
- +0.073EPA / dropback-0.101
- -0.182EPA / rush-0.105
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.6%
- 28.9%Third-down rate34.9%
- 48.3%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
- 1.12Points / drive1.18
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 14–4 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. WAS are 10-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 11/25 | 154 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 2 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 2 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Steve Bush | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tywan Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Arnold Jackson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 13/25 | 154 | 1 | 1 |
| Kent Graham | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 38 | 148 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Kent Graham | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Westbrook | 5 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 3 | 3 | 45 | 1 |
| Stephen Davis | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Rod Gardner | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Zeron Flemister | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.18