2001 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

17·20

Commanders

Washington

QB Tony Banks

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

WAS -3.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.028EPA / play-0.103
  • 39.3%Success rate38.9%
  • +0.073EPA / dropback-0.101
  • -0.182EPA / rush-0.105
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 28.9%Third-down rate34.9%
  • 48.3%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
  • 1.12Points / drive1.18
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
  • +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.069

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 14–4 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. WAS are 10-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4WAS @ ARI42–14WAS
2023 · W1ARI @ WAS16–20WAS
2020 · W2WAS @ ARI15–30ARI
2018 · W1WAS @ ARI24–6WAS
2017 · W15ARI @ WAS15–20WAS
2016 · W13WAS @ ARI23–31ARI
2014 · W6WAS @ ARI20–30ARI
2011 · W2ARI @ WAS21–22WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–WAS
WASQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:1830Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:4032Opp touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 10:4000Opp touchdown7–0
WASQ1 10:40638Punt7–0
ARIQ1 6:47424Punt7–0
WASQ1 4:181049Field goal7–3
ARIQ2 12:27676Touchdown14–3
WASQ2 9:001051Field goal14–6
ARIQ2 3:461063Field goal17–6
WASQ2 0:1310End of half17–6
ARIQ3 15:0032Punt17–6
WASQ3 13:22530Turnover on downs17–6
ARIQ3 10:5933Punt17–6
WASQ3 10:061282Touchdown17–12
ARIQ3 3:19513Punt17–12
WASQ3 0:5230Punt17–12
ARIQ3 0:0000Punt17–12
ARIQ4 15:0034Punt17–12
WASQ4 13:37839Punt17–12
ARIQ4 9:0035Turnover17–12
WASQ4 7:53824Touchdown17–20
ARIQ4 3:114-3Turnover on downs17–20
WASQ4 1:53616Turnover on downs17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer11/2515401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones7263.71
Michael Pittman8192.40
Jake Plummer200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Boston27580
Frank Sanders24390
Steve Bush33300
Thomas Jones1190
Tywan Mitchell1140
Arnold Jackson1120
Michael Pittman0300

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Banks13/2515411
Kent Graham1/1800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis381483.91
Ki-Jana Carter3248.00
Tony Banks581.60
Kent Graham3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Westbrook58620
Walter Rasby33451
Stephen Davis12100
Rod Gardner14100
Marco Battaglia1190
Ki-Jana Carter1380
Zeron Flemister1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.18