Closing spread
STL -14.5
Total
48
Model margin
+9.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. STL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 15 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 13:02 | 3 | 14 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 11:34 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| ATL | Q1 10:03 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 5:58 | 9 | 82 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| ATL | Q1 0:48 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 14:23 | 4 | 23 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| ATL | Q2 11:53 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 10:03 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| ATL | Q2 5:16 | 6 | 17 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| LA | Q2 2:16 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 3–17 |
| ATL | Q2 1:15 | 9 | 70 | Field goal | 6–17 |
| LA | Q2 0:15 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 6–17 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–17 |
| LA | Q3 12:43 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 6–17 |
| ATL | Q3 9:19 | 5 | 32 | Punt | 6–17 |
| LA | Q3 6:15 | 5 | 88 | Touchdown | 12–24 |
| ATL | Q3 3:23 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 13–24 |
| LA | Q3 3:07 | 5 | 60 | Touchdown | 13–31 |
| ATL | Q3 0:07 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–31 |
| LA | Q4 13:58 | 4 | 18 | Turnover | 13–31 |
| ATL | Q4 11:44 | 9 | 46 | Turnover | 13–31 |
| LA | Q4 7:08 | 5 | 59 | Missed field goal | 13–31 |
| ATL | Q4 3:08 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 13–31 |
| LA | Q4 2:25 | 4 | 14 | End of half | 13–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 12/30 | 176 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 6 | 47 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Maurice Smith | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Quentin McCord | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Finneran | 1 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 3 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 2 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Maurice Smith | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
73.7%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+5.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.69
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.