Closing spread
STL -14.5
Total
48
Model margin
+9.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. STL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 12/30 | 176 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 6 | 47 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Maurice Smith | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Quentin McCord | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Finneran | 1 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 3 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 2 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Maurice Smith | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
73.7%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+5.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.69
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.