Closing spread
TEN -5.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.090EPA / play-0.011
- 39.0%Success rate39.7%
- -0.080EPA / dropback+0.112
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.193
- 6.9%Explosive rate8.0%
- 37.7%Third-down rate42.1%
- 46.6%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 0.98Points / drive1.49
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.112EPA / play allowed+0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. TEN are 6-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 28/47 | 340 | 0 | 1 |
| Corey Dillon | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 22 | 87 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Brandon Bennett | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnay Scott | 9 | 11 | 152 | 0 |
| Danny Farmer | 3 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 2 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 5 | 9 | 33 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 3 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Kirk McMullen | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 11/18 | 173 | 1 | 0 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 7/14 | 134 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 21 | 50 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 9 | 11 | 186 | 2 |
| Kevin Dyson | 4 | 10 | 55 | 0 |
| Drew Bennett | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.74