Closing spread
PIT -7
Total
34.5
Model margin
+7.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play+0.060
- 36.9%Success rate42.5%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.039
- 7.1%Explosive rate11.5%
- 31.3%Third-down rate45.8%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.05Points / drive1.58
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.096EPA / play allowed-0.148
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 13/26 | 150 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamel White | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Quincy Morgan | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
| Benjamin Gay | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Johnson | 6 | 9 | 80 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| JaJuan Dawson | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Jake Moreland | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Andre King | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| O.J. Santiago | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 6/8 | 97 | 1 | 1 |
| Kordell Stewart | 8/16 | 72 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 17 | 98 | 5.8 | 1 |
| R.J. Bowers | 11 | 67 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Kordell Stewart | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tee Martin | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Shaw | 2 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| Plaxico Burress | 3 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 4 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Matt Cushing | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| R.J. Bowers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.2%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.31