Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
36
Model margin
-1.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play-0.101
- 36.1%Success rate39.1%
- -0.132EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.192
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.8%
- 32.7%Third-down rate33.9%
- 32.6%Red-zone TD rate47.0%
- 0.93Points / drive0.89
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.034EPA / play allowed+0.064
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–7 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DET are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 11/26 | 158 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 18 | 77 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Quincy Carter | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghib Ismail | 4 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 3 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Detmer | 24/40 | 242 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 13 | 69 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ty Detmer | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 8 | 14 | 86 | 1 |
| Bert Emanuel | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 3 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
| Lamont Warren | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Stephen Trejo | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Desmond Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.11
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.07