2024 · Week 6

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

47·9

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DET -3.5

Total

52.5

Model margin

-2.0est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.156EPA / play-0.089
  • 49.6%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.267EPA / dropback-0.067
  • +0.021EPA / rush-0.128
  • 11.5%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +5.81CPOE-4.87
  • 48.1%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 74.9%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
  • 3.02Points / drive1.68
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 11–7 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DAL are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14DAL @ DET30–44DET
2023 · W17DET @ DAL19–20DAL
2022 · W7DET @ DAL6–24DAL
2019 · W11DAL @ DET35–27DAL
2018 · W4DET @ DAL24–26DAL
2016 · W16DET @ DAL21–42DAL
2014 · playoffsDET @ DAL20–24DAL
2013 · W8DAL @ DET30–31DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–DAL
DALQ1 15:00949Field goal0–3
DETQ1 11:21570Touchdown7–3
DALQ1 9:061058Turnover7–3
DETQ1 4:341158Field goal10–3
DALQ2 13:2835Punt10–3
DETQ2 12:30363Touchdown17–3
DALQ2 11:393-10Punt17–3
DETQ2 10:171039Field goal20–3
DALQ2 3:5748Turnover on downs20–3
DETQ2 2:39633Touchdown27–3
DALQ2 0:3631Field goal27–6
DETQ2 0:0800End of half27–6
DETQ3 15:00570Touchdown34–6
DALQ3 12:351121Field goal34–9
DETQ3 8:48549Field goal37–9
DALQ3 5:26432Turnover37–9
DETQ3 4:241072Field goal40–9
DALQ4 14:1244Turnover46–9
DETQ4 13:2214Touchdown47–9
DALQ4 13:181154Turnover47–9
DETQ4 8:02725Turnover on downs47–9
DALQ4 4:23729Turnover47–9
DETQ4 2:18311End of half47–9

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff18/2531530
Hendon Hooker1/21900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery12806.72
Jahmyr Gibbs12635.30
Craig Reynolds6213.50
Jameson Williams11111.00
Jared Goff351.70
Sione Vaki155.00
Hendon Hooker1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jameson Williams34761
Kalif Raymond46730
Tim Patrick33680
Sam LaPorta11521
Amon-Ra St. Brown44371
Jahmyr Gibbs35280
Allen Robinson0100
David Montgomery1100
Brock Wright0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott17/3317802
Cooper Rush8/114601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle5255.00
Ezekiel Elliott8172.10
KaVontae Turpin166.00
Cooper Rush122.00
CeeDee Lamb122.00
Dak Prescott111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb714890
Jalen Tolbert45430
Rico Dowdle56300
KaVontae Turpin47240
Jalen Brooks16150
Ryan Flournoy11120
Jake Ferguson34110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.7%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.89
  • Rest differential-0.48
  • Expected margin-1.99