Closing spread
DET -3.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
-2.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play-0.089
- 49.6%Success rate41.4%
- +0.267EPA / dropback-0.067
- +0.021EPA / rush-0.128
- 11.5%Explosive rate7.7%
- +5.81CPOE-4.87
- 48.1%Third-down rate37.1%
- 74.9%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 3.02Points / drive1.68
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–7 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DAL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 18/25 | 315 | 3 | 0 |
| Hendon Hooker | 1/2 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 12 | 80 | 6.7 | 2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Sione Vaki | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Hendon Hooker | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | 3 | 4 | 76 | 1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 4 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 3 | 3 | 68 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 1 | 1 | 52 | 1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 4 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 17/33 | 178 | 0 | 2 |
| Cooper Rush | 8/11 | 46 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 7 | 14 | 89 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 4 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Jalen Brooks | 1 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.7%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.11
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.89
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin-1.99