Closing spread
DAL -7.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-6.5est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.111EPA / play-0.039
- 48.7%Success rate41.5%
- +0.192EPA / dropback+0.049
- -0.017EPA / rush-0.193
- 11.1%Explosive rate8.8%
- +1.10CPOE-3.54
- 47.2%Third-down rate41.4%
- 62.1%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 2.45Points / drive1.73
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–7 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DET are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 29/46 | 444 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 16 | 45 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Gallup | 9 | 13 | 148 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 7 | 115 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 4 | 4 | 44 | 1 |
| Amari Cooper | 3 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 3 | 28 | 1 |
| Tavon Austin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Driskel | 15/26 | 209 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Scarbrough | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Jeff Driskel | 8 | 51 | 6.4 | 1 |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Amendola | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 5 | 43 | 2 |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 1 | 1 | 39 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 1 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
32.1%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.90
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-4.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-6.51