Closing spread
DAL -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.4est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.022EPA / play+0.009
- 41.5%Success rate43.9%
- +0.027EPA / dropback+0.051
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.060
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.9%
- -2.79CPOE+1.03
- 36.1%Third-down rate41.3%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.75Points / drive1.93
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–7 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DAL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/30 | 307 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerryon Johnson | 9 | 55 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 8 | 8 | 132 | 2 |
| Kenny Golladay | 4 | 4 | 74 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Hakeem Valles | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 17/27 | 255 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 25 | 152 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 4 | 4 | 88 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 2 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 3 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
| Allen Hurns | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rico Gathers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.41