2018 · Week 4

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

24·26

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -2.5

Total

44

Model margin

+2.4est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.022EPA / play+0.009
  • 41.5%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.027EPA / dropback+0.051
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.060
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -2.79CPOE+1.03
  • 36.1%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.93
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 11–7 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DAL are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14DAL @ DET30–44DET
2024 · W6DET @ DAL47–9DET
2023 · W17DET @ DAL19–20DAL
2022 · W7DET @ DAL6–24DAL
2019 · W11DAL @ DET35–27DAL
2016 · W16DET @ DAL21–42DAL
2014 · playoffsDET @ DAL20–24DAL
2013 · W8DAL @ DET30–31DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–DAL
DETQ1 15:00435Punt0–0
DALQ1 12:4438Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:57729Punt0–0
DALQ1 6:39676Field goal0–3
DETQ1 4:30977Touchdown7–3
DALQ1 0:191150Field goal7–6
DETQ2 11:011378Field goal10–6
DALQ2 2:50460Touchdown10–13
DETQ2 1:39513Punt10–13
DALQ2 0:0400End of half10–13
DALQ3 15:001222Punt10–13
DETQ3 9:1530Punt10–13
DALQ3 7:02864Touchdown10–20
DETQ3 2:59775Touchdown17–20
DALQ4 14:201680Field goal17–23
DETQ4 5:49675Touchdown24–23
DALQ4 2:17855Field goal24–26

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford24/3030720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kerryon Johnson9556.11
Jamal Agnew11717.00
LeGarrette Blount7121.70
Theo Riddick177.00
Matthew Stafford252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate881322
Kenny Golladay44740
Marvin Jones36560
Theo Riddick45200
Levine Toilolo22120
Luke Willson1260
Hakeem Valles1160
Kerryon Johnson1110

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott17/2725520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott251526.10
Rod Smith6223.70
Tavon Austin177.00
Dak Prescott320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ezekiel Elliott44881
Cole Beasley45530
Michael Gallup25450
Geoff Swaim35391
Allen Hurns35300
Tavon Austin0100
Rod Smith1100
Rico Gathers0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.41