Closing spread
DET -3.5
Total
55.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play+0.071
- 47.2%Success rate45.0%
- +0.177EPA / dropback+0.167
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- +1.89CPOE+1.64
- 41.3%Third-down rate39.2%
- 61.6%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
- 2.53Points / drive2.54
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–7 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DET are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 31/47 | 376 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 17 | 67 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Malik Davis | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 6 | 8 | 121 | 0 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 9 | 13 | 115 | 1 |
| Jake Ferguson | 5 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 5 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 25/34 | 309 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 6 | 60 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 3 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Malik Cunningham | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | 7 | 9 | 96 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 6 | 9 | 92 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 7 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.72
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.42