2025 · Week 14

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

30·44

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -3.5

Total

55.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapLions
  • +0.109EPA / play+0.071
  • 47.2%Success rate45.0%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback+0.167
  • -0.007EPA / rush-0.071
  • 8.3%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +1.89CPOE+1.64
  • 41.3%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 61.6%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
  • 2.53Points / drive2.54
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 11–7 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DET are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W6DET @ DAL47–9DET
2023 · W17DET @ DAL19–20DAL
2022 · W7DET @ DAL6–24DAL
2019 · W11DAL @ DET35–27DAL
2018 · W4DET @ DAL24–26DAL
2016 · W16DET @ DAL21–42DAL
2014 · playoffsDET @ DAL20–24DAL
2013 · W8DAL @ DET30–31DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–DET
DETQ1 15:00744Field goal0–3
DALQ1 10:46729Field goal3–3
DETQ1 8:0732Punt3–3
DALQ1 7:073-4Punt3–3
DETQ1 5:24747Touchdown3–10
DALQ1 2:141546Field goal6–10
DETQ2 9:23313Punt6–10
DALQ2 8:21429Turnover6–10
DETQ2 6:15568Touchdown6–17
DALQ2 4:271058Field goal9–17
DETQ2 0:50631Field goal9–20
DALQ3 15:0010Turnover9–20
DETQ3 14:48214Touchdown9–27
DALQ3 14:141060Touchdown16–27
DETQ3 10:41834Missed field goal16–27
DALQ3 5:45733Field goal19–27
DETQ3 2:491160Field goal19–30
DALQ4 11:50470Touchdown27–30
DETQ4 9:52546Touchdown27–37
DALQ4 7:171256Field goal30–37
DETQ4 3:42351Touchdown30–44
DALQ4 2:19840Turnover30–44
DETQ4 1:0600End of half30–44

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott31/4737612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams17673.91
Dak Prescott3144.70
Malik Davis362.00
KaVontae Turpin144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb681210
Ryan Flournoy9131151
Jake Ferguson57580
George Pickens59370
KaVontae Turpin22260
Luke Schoonmaker12120
Brevyn Spann-Ford1170
Javonte Williams2400
Jonathan Mingo0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff25/3430910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery66010.01
Jahmyr Gibbs12433.63
Jameson Williams177.00
Malik Cunningham111.00
Jared Goff2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jameson Williams79960
Amon-Ra St. Brown69920
Jahmyr Gibbs77770
Isaac TeSlaa23201
David Montgomery11130
Anthony Firkser1170
Ross Dwelley1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.72
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.42