2023 · Week 17

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

19·20

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -5.5

Total

53

Model margin

+4.3est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.058EPA / play+0.121
  • 45.9%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.229
  • -0.014EPA / rush-0.061
  • 11.2%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +1.34CPOE+3.68
  • 42.4%Third-down rate49.6%
  • 65.2%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 2.29Points / drive2.67
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 11–7 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DAL are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14DAL @ DET30–44DET
2024 · W6DET @ DAL47–9DET
2022 · W7DET @ DAL6–24DAL
2019 · W11DAL @ DET35–27DAL
2018 · W4DET @ DAL24–26DAL
2016 · W16DET @ DAL21–42DAL
2014 · playoffsDET @ DAL20–24DAL
2013 · W8DAL @ DET30–31DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–DAL
DETQ1 15:001052Field goal3–0
DALQ1 10:46643Turnover3–0
DETQ1 7:59510Punt3–0
DALQ1 4:28389Touchdown3–7
DETQ1 3:26310Punt3–7
DALQ1 1:0730Punt3–7
DETQ2 14:49220Turnover3–7
DALQ2 14:04748Turnover3–7
DETQ2 10:381176Turnover on downs3–7
DALQ2 5:39736Punt3–7
DETQ2 1:4035Punt3–7
DALQ2 0:3720End of half3–7
DALQ3 15:00614Punt3–7
DETQ3 12:001374Touchdown10–7
DALQ3 4:34942Field goal10–10
DETQ3 0:23678Field goal13–10
DALQ4 12:18975Touchdown13–17
DETQ4 7:2035Punt13–17
DALQ4 5:52818Punt13–17
DETQ4 2:33215Turnover13–17
DALQ4 2:05419Field goal13–20
DETQ4 1:41875Touchdown19–20
DALQ4 0:2300End of half19–20

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff19/3427112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery14654.61
Jahmyr Gibbs15432.90
Amon-Ra St. Brown11111.00
Jameson Williams166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown68901
Sam LaPorta712840
Jameson Williams23690
Josh Reynolds12130
Kalif Raymond11110
James Mitchell1140
David Montgomery0100
Jahmyr Gibbs1300

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott26/3834521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard16493.10
Dak Prescott252.50
CeeDee Lamb155.00
Deuce Vaughn221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb13172271
Brandin Cooks58601
Jake Ferguson46330
Deuce Vaughn11100
Jalen Tolbert1190
Peyton Hendershot1160
Tony Pollard1300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.6%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.62
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.32