Closing spread
DAL -5.5
Total
53
Model margin
+4.3est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.058EPA / play+0.121
- 45.9%Success rate48.0%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.229
- -0.014EPA / rush-0.061
- 11.2%Explosive rate8.9%
- +1.34CPOE+3.68
- 42.4%Third-down rate49.6%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 2.29Points / drive2.67
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–7 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DAL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 19/34 | 271 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 15 | 43 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 6 | 8 | 90 | 1 |
| Sam LaPorta | 7 | 12 | 84 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 3 | 69 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| James Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 26/38 | 345 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 16 | 49 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 13 | 17 | 227 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 8 | 60 | 1 |
| Jake Ferguson | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.62
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.32