Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
49.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.073EPA / play+0.031
- 45.7%Success rate45.2%
- +0.173EPA / dropback+0.082
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.031
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.6%
- -1.27CPOE-1.95
- 41.5%Third-down rate46.2%
- 64.6%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
- 2.36Points / drive2.26
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–7 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DAL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 21/26 | 228 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 15 | 79 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalif Raymond | 5 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 4 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Tom Kennedy | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 19/25 | 207 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 12 | 83 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 2 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 4 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 5 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 5 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Michael Gallup | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
4.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.92
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.06