2022 · Week 7

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

6·24

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -7

Total

49.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.073EPA / play+0.031
  • 45.7%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.173EPA / dropback+0.082
  • -0.070EPA / rush-0.031
  • 9.5%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -1.27CPOE-1.95
  • 41.5%Third-down rate46.2%
  • 64.6%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
  • 2.36Points / drive2.26
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 11–7 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DAL are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14DAL @ DET30–44DET
2024 · W6DET @ DAL47–9DET
2023 · W17DET @ DAL19–20DAL
2019 · W11DAL @ DET35–27DAL
2018 · W4DET @ DAL24–26DAL
2016 · W16DET @ DAL21–42DAL
2014 · playoffsDET @ DAL20–24DAL
2013 · W8DAL @ DET30–31DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–DAL
DALQ1 15:003-7Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:26414Punt0–0
DALQ1 10:3937Punt0–0
DETQ1 8:53949Field goal3–0
DALQ1 3:581177Field goal3–3
DETQ2 12:24836Field goal6–3
DALQ2 7:5945Punt6–3
DETQ2 6:4035Punt6–3
DALQ2 4:03865Turnover6–3
DETQ2 1:45323End of half6–3
DETQ3 15:00324Turnover6–3
DALQ3 13:37873Touchdown6–10
DETQ3 10:18520Punt6–10
DALQ3 6:5631Punt6–10
DETQ3 4:231399Turnover6–10
DALQ4 12:21428Punt6–10
DETQ4 9:52421Turnover6–10
DALQ4 8:251359Touchdown6–17
DETQ4 2:462-1Turnover6–17
DALQ4 2:20424Touchdown6–24
DETQ4 1:55522Turnover6–24
DALQ4 0:5000End of half6–24

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff21/2622802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams15795.30
Kalif Raymond22010.00
Craig Reynolds4123.00
Jared Goff144.00
Justin Jackson320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kalif Raymond56750
Brock Wright44570
T.J. Hockenson45480
Craig Reynolds33180
Tom Kennedy23140
Josh Reynolds1280
Jamaal Williams1140
Amon-Ra St. Brown1140

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott19/2520710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard12836.90
Ezekiel Elliott15573.82
KaVontae Turpin133.00
Dak Prescott300.00
CeeDee Lamb1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb46700
Noah Brown57500
Dalton Schultz55490
Tony Pollard22260
Jake Ferguson1170
Peyton Hendershot2251
Michael Gallup0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

4.69%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.92
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+2.06